Wimbledon ratings: Federer, Kerber favourites to win

Published by Game Insight Group

ONE TO BEAT: Roger Federer is a red-hot favourite to defend his Wimbledon title; Getty Images
There are two clear favourites to win Wimbledon in 2018 according to Game Insight Group data.

Will Roger Federer win an unprecedented ninth Wimbledon title? Can Angelique Kerber claim her first? They are the two players to beat, according to Game Insight Group data, as quarterfinal action begins at The Championships.

The predictions are put together using Elo ratings, an alternative to more traditional rankings aimed at giving a greater insight into a player’s performance ability.

They factor in every professional match a player has played in their career, taking into account the level of the opponent, the difficulty of the match and whether it took place at tour level or at a Grand Slam.

When adjusted for specific surfaces, they still take into account all of a player’s matches but weigh those on the chosen surface more heavily.

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Kerber, a Wimbledon finalist in 2016, started the tournament with a 6.3% chance of winning the title. The world No.11 is now the highest-ranked woman left in the draw, boosting her title chances to 28.3%.

Wimbledon Ladies’
Championship Prediction 
Player Title chance
Angelique Kerber 28.3%
Serena Williams 20.6%
Julia Goerges 12.0%
Daria Kasatkina 10.5%
Jelena Ostapenko 9.6%
Kiki Bertens 9.4%
Camila Giorgi 4.8%
Dominika Cibulkova 4.7%

REPORT: Kerber, Ostapenko charge into quarterfinals

Roger Federer remains a firm favourite for the gentlemen’s title, with his chances rising to 41.9% (up 4% on his pre-tournament chances).

Wimbledon Gentlemen’s
Championship Prediction^ 
Player Title chance
Roger Federer 41.9%
Rafael Nadal 21.1%
Novak Djokovic 19.1%
Milos Raonic 6.2%
Juan Martin del Potro 5.9%
Kevin Anderson 2.2%
John Isner 2.0%
Kei Nishikori 1.5%

^ If Del Potro beats Simon to reach the quarterfinals

World No.1 and two-time Wimbledon champion Rafael Nadal looms as Federer’s biggest challenger. The Spaniard’s chances receive a further boost should Frenchman Gilles Simon recover from a two-sets-to-one deficit when his fourth round clash with world No.4 Juan Martin del Potro resumes on day eight of The Championships.

REPORT: Nadal returns to Wimbledon quarterfinals

Wimbledon Gentlemen’s Championship Prediction*
Player Title chance
Roger Federer 41.7%
Rafael Nadal 26.6%
Novak Djokovic 19.1%
Milos Raonic 6.1%
Kevin Anderson 2.2%
John Isner 2.1%
Kei Nishikori 1.6%
Gilles Simon 0.5%

* If Simon beats Del Potro to reach the quarterfinals

QUIZ: Which grass-court champion are you?

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