Indian Wells: Can Novak Djokovic be stopped?

Published by Game Insight Group

IN FORM: Novak Djokovic on the practice court at Indian Wells this week; Getty Images
Game Insight Group has crunched the data to discover who is the Indian Wells title favourite for 2019 …

Reigning Australian Open champion Novak Djokovic is a red-hot favourite to win the Indian Wells title.

According to Game Insight Group (GIG) data, the world No.1 has a massive 53.1 per cent chance of scooping his sixth title in the Californian desert this fortnight. That is more than double that of world No.2 Rafael Nadal at 20.3 per cent.

Roger Federer is the only other player whose title chances are in double figures (at 15.8 per cent), however the five-time champion has landed in the most difficult quarter of the draw.

INDIAN WELLS: Serena Williams, Naomi Osaka favourites in women’s draw

Men’s singles championship prediction (pre-tournament)

Player Title chance
Novak Djokovic 53.1%
Rafael Nadal 20.3%
Roger Federer 15.8%
Alexander Zverev 3.4%
Daniil Medvedev 2%
Gael Monfils 1.5%
Roberto Bautista Agut 0.9%
Stefanos Tsitsipas 0.7%
Kei Nishikori 0.6%
Marin Cilic 0.5%
Indian Wells men’s singles draw difficulty (pre-tournament)
Player Quarter (- more difficult/+ easy)
Novak Djokovic 1 +0.50%
Alexander Zverev 2 +0.53%
Roger Federer 3 -0.88%
Rafael Nadal 4 -0.15%

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The predictions are put together using Elo ratings, an alternative to more traditional rankings aimed at giving a greater insight into a player’s performance ability.

They factor in every professional match a player has played in their career, taking into account the level of the opponent, the difficulty of the match and whether it took place at tour level or at a Grand Slam.

When adjusted for specific surfaces, they still take into account all of a player’s matches but weigh those on the chosen surface more heavily.

> Read more at the Game Insight Group blog

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