Wimbledon: Men’s and women’s title predictions

Published by Game Insight Group

Roger Federer is on familiar territory at the All England Club; Getty Images
Game Insight Group crunches the numbers to come up with the toughest draws and the players to beat at Wimbledon.

Roger Federer returns to Wimbledon as a strong favourite to lift the title for the ninth time in 16 years, while the leading women remain harder to separate.

After studying the data*, the Game Insight Group (GIG) rates Rafael Nadal as the man most likely to stop Federer in what could be a repeat of their epic final of 10 years ago.

An improving Novak Djokovic leads the chasing pack, with Croatia’s Borna Coric making a first top-10 appearance in GIG’s Grand Slam ratings after his win over Federer in Halle.

QUIZ: Roger v Rafa – test your knowledge

Elina Svitolina and Simona Halep continue to top the women’s standings thanks to their remarkable consistency, but the Ukrainian has yet to carry that form into a long Grand Slam run.

Sloane Stephens continues to push her way up the list of Grand Slam contenders after reaching the final in Paris, while Petra Kvitova is firmly back in the major reckoning 18 months on from suffering a knife attack.

And the great unknown – how will Serena Williams fare on her return to Wimbledon on the back of just seven matches in 18 months?

The data suggests she will struggle to challenge for an eighth title, but her presence towards the bottom of the draw helps make that the toughest quarter to battle through.

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The predictions are put together using Elo ratings, an alternative to more traditional rankings aimed at giving a greater insight into a player’s performance ability.

They factor in every professional match a player has played in their career, taking into account the level of the opponent, the difficulty of the match and whether it took place at tour level or at a Grand Slam.

When adjusted for specific surfaces, they still take into account all of a player’s matches but weigh those on the chosen surface more heavily.

Wimbledon men’s draw difficulty (pre-tournament)

Quarter Top seed (-more difficult/+easy)
1 Roger Federer (1) +3.3%
2 Marin Cilic (3) +2.1%
3 Alexander Zverev (4) -4.0%
4 Rafael Nadal (2) -1.5%

Wimbledon women’s draw difficulty (pre-tournament)

Quarter Top seed (-more difficult/+easy)
1 Simona Halep (1) -0.6%
2 Garbine Muguruza (3) +2.3%
3 Sloane Stephens (4) +1.7%
4 Caroline Wozniacki (2) -4.4%

Men’s Championship Prediction (pre-tournament)

 Player Title chance
1. Roger Federer 37.9%
2. Rafael Nadal 15.8%
3. Novak Djokovic 7.1%
4. Alexander Zverev 6.8%
5. Marin Cilic 5.2%
6. Juan Martin del Potro 3.0%
7. Milos Raonic 2.2%
8. Nick Kyrgios 1.8%
9. Dominic Thiem 1.7%
10. Borna Coric 1.7%
+
44. Stan Wawrinka 0.1%

Wimbledon Women’s Championship Prediction (pre-tournament)

 Player Title chance
1. Elina Svitolina 15.3%
2. Simona Halep 14.7%
3. Caroline Wozniacki 7.3%
4. Karolina Pliskova 6.4%
5. Angelique Kerber 6.3%
6. Petra Kvitova 4.8%
7. Garbine Muguruza 4.5%
8. Sloane Stephens 3.7%
9. Caroline Garcia 3.3%
10. Daria Kasatkina 3.2%
+
14. Maria Sharapova 2.7%
39. Serena Williams 0.2%

 

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