Can Serena Williams win her first Indian Wells title since 2001?
The world No.10-ranked American is the title favourite according to Game Insight Group (GIG) data. Williams has a 22.3 per cent chance of winning Indian Wells this year, ahead of world No.1 and defending champion Naomi Osaka at 15.7 per cent.
Williams is in a strong third quarter of the draw, headlined by fourth seed Sloane Stephens. It makes for a particularly tough draw for Stephens, but it won’t be easy for Williams either. The 37-year-old, who made the third round at Indian Wells last year in her tour-level return from maternity leave, faces a potential second-round meeting and 2016 final rematch with Victoria Azarenka.
QUIZ: Can you pick these player legs?
Women’s singles championship prediction (pre-tournament)
| Player | Title chance |
| Serena Williams | 22.3% |
| Naomi Osaka | 15.7% |
| Karolina Pliskova | 14.2% |
| Ash Barty | 11% |
| Petra Kvitova | 10.2% |
| Simona Halep | 9.6% |
| Elina Svitolina | 3.9% |
| Aryna Sabalenka | 2.1% |
| Kiki Bertens | 2% |
| Madison Keys | 2% |
| Player | Quarter | (- more difficult/+ easy) |
| Naomi Osaka | 1 | -0.5% |
| Petra Kvitova | 2 | +2.1% |
| Sloane Stephens | 3 | -5.5% |
| Simona Halep | 4 | +3.95% |
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The predictions are put together using Elo ratings, an alternative to more traditional rankings aimed at giving a greater insight into a player’s performance ability.
They factor in every professional match a player has played in their career, taking into account the level of the opponent, the difficulty of the match and whether it took place at tour level or at a Grand Slam.
When adjusted for specific surfaces, they still take into account all of a player’s matches but weigh those on the chosen surface more heavily.
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