Indian Wells: Serena Williams, Naomi Osaka the title favourites

Published by Game Insight Group

ONE TO BEAT: Serena Williams is the Indian Wells title favourite according to GIG data; Getty Images
Game Insight Group has crunched the data to discover who is the Indian Wells title favourite for 2019 …

Can Serena Williams win her first Indian Wells title since 2001?

The world No.10-ranked American is the title favourite according to Game Insight Group (GIG) data. Williams has a 22.3 per cent chance of winning Indian Wells this year, ahead of world No.1 and defending champion Naomi Osaka at 15.7 per cent.

Williams is in a strong third quarter of the draw, headlined by fourth seed Sloane Stephens. It makes for a particularly tough draw for Stephens, but it won’t be easy for Williams either. The 37-year-old, who made the third round at Indian Wells last year in her tour-level return from maternity leave, faces a potential second-round meeting and 2016 final rematch with Victoria Azarenka.

QUIZ: Can you pick these player legs?

Women’s singles championship prediction (pre-tournament)

Player Title chance
Serena Williams 22.3%
Naomi Osaka 15.7%
Karolina Pliskova 14.2%
Ash Barty 11%
Petra Kvitova 10.2%
Simona Halep 9.6%
Elina Svitolina 3.9%
Aryna Sabalenka 2.1%
Kiki Bertens 2%
Madison Keys 2%
Indian Wells women’s singles draw difficulty (pre-tournament)
Player Quarter (- more difficult/+ easy)
Naomi Osaka 1 -0.5%
Petra Kvitova 2 +2.1%
Sloane Stephens 3 -5.5%
Simona Halep 4 +3.95%

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The predictions are put together using Elo ratings, an alternative to more traditional rankings aimed at giving a greater insight into a player’s performance ability.

They factor in every professional match a player has played in their career, taking into account the level of the opponent, the difficulty of the match and whether it took place at tour level or at a Grand Slam.

When adjusted for specific surfaces, they still take into account all of a player’s matches but weigh those on the chosen surface more heavily.

> Read more at the Game Insight Group blog

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