Rafael Nadal remains the man to beat 13 years after his first triumph at Roland Garros, while two players have separated themselves from the pack in the women’s title race.
After studying the clay-court data, the Game Insight Group rates Nadal an overwhelming favourite to lift the trophy for the 11th time, but also has him placed in the toughest quarter of the draw.
Alexander Zverev has emerged as the leading candidate to dethrone Nadal despite his relative lack of Grand Slam success.
Elina Svitolina has moved to the top of the women’s title-chance ratings following her win over Simona Halep in Rome, and the Ukrainian has landed in the kindest quarter of the draw.
Twitter: Get the latest updates from Game Insight Group
The fact that Karolina Pliskova’s quarter is not the toughest might come as a surprise to some, but the current women’s clay Elo ratings have both Maria Sharapova and Serena Williams outside the top 10.
The predictions are put together using Elo ratings, an alternative to more traditional rankings aimed at giving a greater insight into a player’s performance ability.
They factor in every professional match a player has played in their career, taking into account the level of the opponent, the difficulty of the match and whether it took place at tour level or at a Grand Slam.
When adjusted for specific surfaces, they still take into account all of a player’s matches but weigh those on the chosen surface more heavily.
French Open Men’s Championship Prediction (pre-tournament)
| Player | Title chance |
| 1. Rafael Nadal | 37.9% |
| 2. Alexander Zverev | 15.8% |
| 3. Juan Martin del Potro | 7.1% |
| 4. Dominic Thiem | 6.8% |
| 5. David Goffin | 5.2% |
| 6. Novak Djokovic | 3.0% |
| 7. Marin Cilic | 2.2% |
| 8. Grigor Dimitrov | 1.8% |
| =9. Nick Kyrgios | 1.7% |
| =9. Tomas Berdych | 1.7% |
French Open Women’s Championship Prediction (pre-tournament)
| Player | Title chance |
| 1. Elina Svitolina | 16.8% |
| 2. Simona Halep | 14.1% |
| 3. Caroline Wozniacki | 8.2% |
| 4. Karolina Pliskova | 6.4% |
| 5. Angelique Kerber | 6.2% |
| 6. Daria Kasatkina | 5.78% |
| 7. Petra Kvitova | 5.77% |
| 8. Caroline Garcia | 4.2% |
| 9. Naomi Osaka | 3.31% |
| 10. Garbine Muguruza | 3.25% |
Men’s draw difficulty (pre-tournament)
| Quarter | Top seed | (-more difficult/+easy) |
| 1 | Rafael Nadal (1) | -2.9% |
| 2 | Marin Cilic (3) | +1.3% |
| 3 | Grigor Dimitrov (4) | -1.3% |
| 4 | Alexander Zverev (2) | +2.5% |
Women’s draw difficulty (pre-tournament)
| Quarter | Top seed | (-more difficult/+easy) |
| 1 | Simona Halep (1) | -1.1% |
| 2 | Garbine Muguruza (3) | +2.4% |
| 3 | Elina Svitolina (4) | +3.2% |
| 4 | Caroline Wozniacki (2) | -4.7% |
16 February 2017
In the first part of our series analysing the similarities and differences between men's ... More
22 September 2017
In the heat and humidity of the recent US Open series, there was a slow-mo nod to a long-r... More
7 November 2016
Double Wimbledon champion, double Olympic champion and now world No.1. But what doesn't An... More
23 February 2016
Tennis is a funny old game. People love you one minute and then want to drop you the next;... More
© 2024 Tennis Australia