French Open: Men’s and women’s title predictions

Published by Game Insight Group

Elina Svitolina retained her Rome title on the eve of the French Open; Getty Images
Elina Svitolina and Rafael Nadal are the players to beat as the Game Insight Group studies the data ahead of the French Open.

Rafael Nadal remains the man to beat 13 years after his first triumph at Roland Garros, while two players have separated themselves from the pack in the women’s title race.

After studying the clay-court data, the Game Insight Group rates Nadal an overwhelming favourite to lift the trophy for the 11th time, but also has him placed in the toughest quarter of the draw.

Alexander Zverev has emerged as the leading candidate to dethrone Nadal despite his relative lack of Grand Slam success.

Elina Svitolina has moved to the top of the women’s title-chance ratings following her win over Simona Halep in Rome, and the Ukrainian has landed in the kindest quarter of the draw.

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The fact that Karolina Pliskova’s quarter is not the toughest might come as a surprise to some, but the current women’s clay Elo ratings have both Maria Sharapova and Serena Williams outside the top 10.

The predictions are put together using Elo ratings, an alternative to more traditional rankings aimed at giving a greater insight into a player’s performance ability.

They factor in every professional match a player has played in their career, taking into account the level of the opponent, the difficulty of the match and whether it took place at tour level or at a Grand Slam.

When adjusted for specific surfaces, they still take into account all of a player’s matches but weigh those on the chosen surface more heavily.

French Open Men’s Championship Prediction (pre-tournament)

 Player Title chance
1. Rafael Nadal 37.9%
2. Alexander Zverev 15.8%
3. Juan Martin del Potro 7.1%
4. Dominic Thiem 6.8%
5. David Goffin 5.2%
6. Novak Djokovic 3.0%
7. Marin Cilic 2.2%
8. Grigor Dimitrov 1.8%
=9. Nick Kyrgios 1.7%
=9. Tomas Berdych 1.7%

French Open Women’s Championship Prediction (pre-tournament)

 Player Title chance
1. Elina Svitolina 16.8%
2. Simona Halep 14.1%
3. Caroline Wozniacki 8.2%
4. Karolina Pliskova 6.4%
5. Angelique Kerber 6.2%
6. Daria Kasatkina 5.78%
7. Petra Kvitova 5.77%
8. Caroline Garcia 4.2%
9. Naomi Osaka 3.31%
10. Garbine Muguruza 3.25%

Men’s draw difficulty (pre-tournament)

Quarter Top seed (-more difficult/+easy)
1 Rafael Nadal (1) -2.9%
2 Marin Cilic (3) +1.3%
3 Grigor Dimitrov (4) -1.3%
4 Alexander Zverev (2) +2.5%

Women’s draw difficulty (pre-tournament)

Quarter Top seed (-more difficult/+easy)
1 Simona Halep (1) -1.1%
2 Garbine Muguruza (3) +2.4%
3 Elina Svitolina (4) +3.2%
4 Caroline Wozniacki (2) -4.7%

 

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