Defending champion Rafael Nadal and fellow world No.1 Simona Halep are strong favourites to win the US Open singles titles.
After studying the data, the Game Insight Group rates Nadal as the man to beat, with his chances boosted by closest rivals Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic being placed together in a brutally tough bottom section of the draw.
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The predictions are put together using Elo ratings*, an alternative to more traditional rankings aimed at giving a greater insight into a player’s performance ability.
They factor in every professional match a player has played in their career, taking into account the level of the opponent, the difficulty of the match and whether it took place at tour level or at a Grand Slam.
When adjusted for specific surfaces, they still take into account all of a player’s matches but weigh those on the chosen surface more heavily.
US Open Women’s Championship Prediction (pre-tournament)
Player | Title chance |
1. Simona Halep | 28.3% |
2. Kiki Bertens | 7.1% |
3. Elina Svitolina | 6.8% |
4. Angelique Kerber | 6.0% |
5. Petra Kvitova | 4.5% |
6. Maria Sharapova | 4.0% |
7. Aryna Sabalenka | 3.7% |
8. Sloane Stephens | 3.65% |
9. Ash Barty | 3.2% |
10. Daria Kasatkina | 2.8% |
11. Elise Mertens | 2.5% |
12. Caroline Wozniacki | 2.3% |
13. Caroline Garcia | 2.1% |
14. Julia Goerges | 1.9% |
15. Madison Keys | 1.86% |
16. Karolina Pliskova | 1.7% |
17. Garbine Muguruza | 1.4% |
18. Jelena Ostapenko | 1.12% |
19. Anastasija Sevastova | 1.11% |
20. Naomi Osaka | 0.9% |
21. Serena Williams | 0.85% |
22. Venus Williams | 0.8% |
23. Carla Suarez Navarro | 0.7% |
24. Mihaela Buzarnescu | 0.6% |
25. Victoria Azarenka | 0.5% |
US Open Men’s Championship Prediction (pre-tournament)
Player | Title chance |
1. Rafael Nadal | 34.9% |
2. Roger Federer | 18.8% |
3. Novak Djokovic | 12.3% |
4. Juan Martin del Potro | 9.8% |
5. Alexander Zverev | 4.5% |
6. Marin Cilic | 3.2% |
7. David Goffin | 1.8% |
8. Nick Kyrgios | 1.3% |
9. Milos Raonic | 1.28% |
10. Kevin Anderson | 1.0% |
11. Grigor Dimitrov | 0.8% |
12. Fabio Fognini | 0.78% |
=13. Karen Khachanov | 0.51% |
=13. Stefanos Tsitsipas | 0.51% |
=15. Andy Murray | 0.47% |
=15. Borna Coric | 0.47% |
17. Kei Nishikori | 0.44% |
18. Denis Shapovalov | 0.42% |
19. Hyeon Chung | 0.38% |
=20. John Isner | 0.36% |
=20. Roberto Bautista Agut | 0.36% |
22. Diego Schwartzman | 0.35% |
23. Kyle Edmund | 0.34% |
24. Dominic Thiem | 0.33% |
25. Pablo Carreno Busta | 0.31% |
Men’s draw difficulty (pre-tournament)
Quarter | Top seed | (-more difficult/+easy) |
1 | Rafael Nadal (1) | +7.0% |
2 | JM del Potro (3) | +0.2% |
3 | Alexander Zverev (4) | +3.4% |
4 | Roger Federer (2) | -11.0% |
Women’s draw difficulty (pre-tournament)
Quarter | Top seed | (-more difficult/+easy) |
1 | Simona Halep (1) | +2.9% |
2 | Sloane Stephens (3) | -0.7% |
3 | Angelique Kerber (4) | -1.3% |
4 | Caroline Wozniacki (2) | -0.9% |
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