Elo Ratings: WTA Finals contenders

Caroline Wozniacki will defend her title at the WTA Finals in Singapore next week, but Naomi Osaka might be the player to watch.

In the absence of injured world No.1 Simona Halep, Wozniacki heads the list of eight finalists as she looks to bookend end a year that began with her first major title in Australia, by retaining the season-ending title.

Using Elo ratings, the Game Insight Group pinpointed St Petersburg as the high-point of the Dane’s year in terms of form, which has seen a marked upturn in recent weeks with her victory in Beijing.

Twitter: Get the latest updates from Game Insight Group

Finals debutantes Osaka and Kiki Bertens are the form players in 2018, while Elina Svitolina has slumped considerably since this time last year and only just made the final eight.

Elo ratings* are an alternative to more traditional rankings aimed at giving a greater insight into a player’s performance ability.

*How do Elo ratings work?

• Elo ratings are already used in many other sports and when applied to tennis they outperform other published prediction methods, including those based on offical rankings.
• Elo ratings factor in all main draw singles matches above the Challenger level.
• Elo is smart about how many points are won or lost. If a player did more than expected in earning a win against a strong opponent, they earn more points than for an easy win. If a player underperformed by getting upset, they lose more points than for losing to an equal opponent.
• Elo ratings can be surface-adjusted, taking into account all of a player’s matches, but weighing those on the specific surface more heavily.
• Elo ratings of players absent from competition for more than three months are deducted 100 points. Walkovers and retirements are excluded.
• Players earn/lose more points for results over the same opponents at Grand Slams compared to lower-level tournaments.