Djokovic v Murray: The battle for world No.1

At the start of the year it seemed unfathomable. Midway through the year it appeared improbable. Now it seems, dare we say it, entirely possible. With his victory in Vienna, Andy Murray is on course to catch Novak Djokovic and become world No.1 in just seven days time.

Admittedly, the fate of the No.1 spot is not in Murray’s hands. But with just 415 points separating the two men at the top of the tree, and with Murray on a 15-match win streak, the margins at the Paris Masters (a.k.a. Bercy) are going to be fine.

There are two scenarios whereby Murray can take No.1 from Djokovic:
Scenario 1: Murray wins the title and Djokovic does not make the final.
Scenario 2: Murray loses in the final and Djokovic loses in the quarterfinals (or before).

Novak Djokovic, meanwhile, could wrap up the year-end No.1 (his third in a row) if he wins in Bercy and Murray doesn’t make the quarterfinals.

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If Murray does catch Djokovic, it will be his first time on top of the world (he has spent a total of 76 weeks at No.2). At 29, he would be the oldest first-time No.1 since John Newcombe in 1974. Murray will be playing his 79th match of the year when he begins his campaign in Paris, with the Brit 69-9 for the year.

Djokovic, meanwhile, is looking to defend his No.1 on a court that he knows and likes. He boasts a career record of 26-6 at Bercy and has won the title four times. This week is his 223rd at the top of the ATP pile (fifth overall), and he has been No.1 for 122 consecutive weeks. If he can keep Murray at bay he will finish year-end No.1 for the third time in a row, and fifth time in six years.

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These are the likely paths to the Paris Masters final for both Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray.

Novak Djokovic’s projected path to the Paris final:
1R: Bye
2R: Gilles Muller
3R: Grigor Dimitrov
QF: Marin Cilic
SF: Stan Wawrinka
F: Andy Murray

Andy Murray’s projected path to the Paris final:
1R: Bye
2R: Fernando Verdasco
3R: Lucas Pouille
QF: Tomas Berdych
SF: Kei Nishikori
F: Novak Djokovic