Serena still in contention for year-end No.1

The battle for the women’s year-end No.1 ranking could come down to the wire in Singapore.

Should Serena Williams front up for the WTA Finals, the American – currently ranked No.2 – could reclaim the top ranking she held for 186 consecutive weeks if she wins the season-ending tournament.

It would be her sixth year-end No.1 finish, and fourth consecutively.

But that assumes Kerber struggles for the remainder of 2016.

A lot depends on the German’s performance in Hong Kong – where she is currently mired in a second-round battle with Louisa Chirico – and then subsequently in Singapore.

It also depends on how many matches both she and Serena win in the round-robin stage of the WTA Finals, which could make or break their progression to the semifinals, where from there more points are up for grabs.

With so many combinations and permutations in the mix, we’ve broken down the projected points tallies for each player, depending on all these outcomes.

One thing is for certain – Williams must win the title in Singapore to have any chance.

Even if she reached the final with a 3-0 round-robin record, and Kerber lost all her matches from now until the end of the season, it still wouldn’t be enough.

Kerber will lock up the No.1 ranking if she reaches the final in Singapore. And she’d come pretty close to securing it with a semifinal finish – but it’s no guarantee. That’s where her performance in Hong Kong and round-robin play becomes crucial.

Is Serena up to the challenge? Or can Kerber maintain her grip on top spot?

We await with interest.

Kerber & Williams – the battle for No.1

Points totals listed in bold italics represent Kerber’s performances that would make it possible for Williams to regain the No.1 ranking in Singapore – only if Serena wins the tournament.

Ranking points heading into the WTA Finals, depending on Kerber’s Hong Kong result:

Williams’ year-end ranking points projections, depending on how she fares in Singapore:

Kerber’s year-end ranking points projections (WTA Finals 2015 points removed) depending on how she fares in Singapore:

If she loses at the semifinal stage or earlier in Hong Kong …

If she loses in the Hong Kong final …

If she wins Hong Kong …

*although unlikely, a 1-2 record in round-robin play can still be enough to clinch a semifinal place in Singapore
^although unlikely, a 2-1 record in round-robin play doesn’t guarantee a semifinal berth in Singapore