US Open final preview: Djokovic v Wawrinka

Novak Djokovic v Stan Wawrinka has all the makings of a classic match. But when it comes to the crunch, does Djokovic really have the edge that their head to head suggests? We take a look at the US Open final, and try to unpick what each man has to do to stand a chance of walking away with the trophy.

Novak Djokovic [1] v Stan Wawrinka [3]

H2H: Djokovic leads 19-4
Hard court H2H: Djokovic leads 13-2
Last meeting: Djokovic d. Wawrinka 6-3 3-6 6-0 (Paris Masters 2015)
Djokovic US Open best: Winner 2011, 2015
Kerber US Open best: Semifinal 2013, 2015

Djokovic road to the final:
1R: d. Jerzy Janowicz 6-3 5-7 6-2 6-1
2R: d. Jiri Vesely (walkover)
3R: d. Mikhail Youzhny 4-2 (retired)
4R: d. Kyle Edmund 6-2 6-1 6-4
QF: d. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga [9] 6-3, 6-2 (retired)
SF: d. Gael Monfils [10] 6-3 6-2 3-6 6-2

Wawrinka road to the final:
1R: d. Fernando Verdasco 7-6(4) 6-4 6-4
2R: d. Alessandro Giannessi 6-1 7-6(4) 7-5
3R: d. Daniel Evans 4-6 6-3 6-7(6) 7-6(8) 6-2
4R: d. Illya Marchenko 6-4 6-1 6-7(5) 6-3
QF: d. Juan Martin del Potro 7-6(7) 4-6 6-3 6-2
SF: d. Kei Nishikori [6] 4-6 7-5 6-4 6-2

What Djokovic needs to do to win: Keep calm and carry on. On paper, this looks like a good match-up for Novak Djokovic. In reality it’s anything but. Stan Wawrinka not only enjoys playing against the world No.1, he also enjoys playing on the big courts and in the big matches. If Djokovic is to walk away with his third Major of the season, he needs to contain both the world No.3, and his own emotions. If, as was the case against Monfils, he fails to do the latter, Wawrinka has the ability and the knowhow to take advantage.

There are also questions about Djokovic’s health. There’s no doubt that his strange route to the final has been more of a benefit than a hindrance to the Serb. However, that he has called the trainer in every one of his completed matches thus far is significant. If Wawrinka can keep him on the court, and make it a truly physical battle (like the ones we have seen at the Australian and French Opens), Djokovic could be in trouble.

That said, the Serb is the undoubted favourite going into this match. He has both the weapons and the ability to stay with Wawrinka when the Swiss is in beast mode, and capitalise on any dip in form. He will go into this match confident of securing his third title.

What Wawrinka needs to do to win: There’s something about Novak Djokovic that brings the best out in Stan Wawrinka. Admittedly, that doesn’t mean that that best is always good enough to give him the win (a quick glance at the H2H proves that), but Stan has openly admitted that he enjoys playing against the Serb. Twice Wawrinka has beaten Djokovic over five sets, and once on hard court (Australian Open 2014).

Can he do it again? He has looked streaky at the US Open thus far. He’s played games that have been utterly brilliant, and then moments later has given the appearance of being completely non-plussed. But Wawrinka is a big game player (he’s won the last ten finals he has played), and if he can maintain his focus – and his brilliance – over the course of the three, four or possibly five hours that these two are more than capable of playing, then he definitely has a chance.

As he has done on previous occasions, to win Wawrinka needs to attack. Djokovic will do his best to soak up whatever world No.3 throws at him, but the Swiss star will just have to keep plying away. What’s more, knowing that Djokovic isn’t 100% fit gives the third seed cause for hope. If he can make him work, and make him hurt, he might just be able to crack him.

Beating Novak Djokovic on a hard court over five sets is arguably the toughest test in tennis at the moment, but of all the players who started the 2016 US Open, Stan Wawrinka is the one who has always looked the most likely to pass that test.