Do we pay attention to lead-up form?

How much notice should we take of players’ tournament results leading up to the US Open?

History shows it’s quite a solid indicator of how a player will fare at Flushing Meadows.

People couldn’t believe it when Roberta Vinci appeared in the semifinals at last year’s US Open and stunned Serena Williams to reach her first major final.

Sure, she was never expected to beat the world No.1, but her North American hardcourt season had been a successful one. She’d recently reached the quarterfinals in Toronto – where she fell to Williams in a match that was perhaps more valuable to Vinci’s preparation than we noted at the time – and also won four matches in New Haven to make the second round as a qualifier. She ultimately lost to Caroline Wozniacki, but only after pushing the No.3 seed to 9-7 in a third-set tiebreak.

All in all, Vinci had won seven of her 10 North American hardcourt matches prior to arriving in New York, and was 12-from-15 by the time she faced Serena in the semis. She had to have been feeling good about her game.

So too must have Sam Stosur, who apparently emerged from nowhere as the lowly ninth seed to upset Serena in the 2011 final at Flushing Meadows.

Yet like Vinci, Stosur had slipped under the radar in the lead-up, reaching the Toronto final and the Cincinnati quarters and arriving in New York equal-fifth in the US Open Series standings with a win-loss record of 7-3. The Toronto final was also a Serena v Stosur affair – Stosur had clearly learned from that final and turned the tables when it mattered most.

It’s much the same on the men’s side.

Rarely to US Open winners, or even those who reach the final or semifinals, have little to show for form in the lead-up to the year’s final Grand Slam event.

Last year, Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer battled it out in the US Open final, a match pitting the Montreal and Cincinnati finalist (Djokovic) against the reigning Cincy champion (Federer). The year 2013 was even more clear-cut – Rafael Nadal completed the rare Montreal-Cincinnati double before scooping the title in New York.

*London Olympics altered US hardcourt season schedule

Only in 2014 did tune-up form really fail to translate to the main event.

Marin Cilic was that year’s surprise champion, and his lead-in form was lukewarm at best – he lost in the third round in both Toronto and Cincinnati. The player he beat in the final, Kei Nishikori, had just one US hardcourt result under his belt prior to the Open – a quarterfinal finish in Washington DC.

Similarly, Flavia Pennetta, last year’s US Open champ, showed no signs of form ahead of her career-defining victory. She fell in the first round in New Haven and didn’t fare much better in either Toronto or Cincinnati, exiting in the second round of each.

But these results are the exception, rather than the rule.

So, who do we look to as potential success stories at the 2016 Open?

The Olympics, which forced many players to interrupt their US hardcourt season to fly to Rio and back a week later, could have an impact. But you’d argue it’s less, given the humidity and hard court surface of the Games are not unlike what appears in New York.

First, we could at the title winners, like:

• Gael Monfils, who won in Washington and also progressed to the Toronto quarters and Cincinnati third round
• Agnieszka Radwanska, the New Haven champ who also reached the quarters in Cincy and won the US Open Series
• Johanna Konta, victorious in Stanford as well as being a quarterfinalist in Montreal

And then there’s others who were generally consistent throughout the summer, like Steve Johnson – a semifinalist in Washington, quarterfinalist in Cincy and Rio and a third-round finisher in Winston-Salem. He arrived in New York having won 10 of his past 15 matches.

Or there’s players who burned brightly, but briefly. Novak Djokovic bobbed up to win Toronto but bombed early in his other summer events. Karolina Pliskova came from nowhere to win the big women’s title in Cincinnati, but it was by far her best result. Obviously, those two are capable of winning swathes of matches in New York, particularly Djokovic, the world No.1 and defending champ.

Whatever happens, history shows the road leading to the US Open provides plenty of clues as to the who ultimately reigns in New York.