Rafole revisited: Nadal, Djokovic set for Wimbledon battle

When Rafael Nadal raised both arms straight above his head after finally downing Juan Martin del Potro in a thrilling, astonishing fifth set, his face carried the satisfaction worthy of someone who had just triumphed in an instant classic. But there was also something more.

There was relief after clearing a hurdle he has been chasing for seven years. It was the first time in seven years that he had reached the Wimbledon semi-finals, the first time in seven years that he had beaten a top 10 opponent on grass and the first time in seven years that he had laid the gauntlet down as a clear contender for the Wimbledon title.

As Nadal prepares to face his toughest rival, Novak Djokovic, desperation borne out of absence is the theme of the impending battle. Though clay is the surface that has defined Nadal’s career, Wimbledon always seemed to be the slam he looked to fondly, the one on a surface so foreign that he couldn’t even dream of it.

Are you team @DjokerNole or team @RafaelNadal? https://t.co/krDkak8teL

— #AusOpen (@AustralianOpen) July 11, 2018

It is also the slam and surface about which he is most sensitive. When people question the effects of the conditions on his game on clay, he kicks his feet up and shrugs; everyone knows he prefers higher-bouncing warm conditions to the damp alternative. Everyone knows he normally wins regardless.

However, he seems to perceive questions about the different grass-court conditions as a slight, a suggestion that his quality on the surface, despite his two titles and five finals, is only conditional. When asked about his thoughts on this fortnight’s hot, sunny conditions – thought to make the grass courts firmer and livelier – he dodged the question. “Is better if I play well. If I play bad, doesn’t matter if it’s warm or cold or rain or sun. That’s the thing, no?” he responded with finality.

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Djokovic, meanwhile, rarely has looked more shattered in defeat than he did last month at Roland Garros when he lost to Marco Cecchinato in the quarterfinals. It was one the setbacks throughout his return from an elbow injury that inevitably catalysed doubts about his future.

He had done everything right; his level rose in the build up and he eased into the quarterfinals but when he needed customary grit, he found he was still not quite himself. After losing, Djokovic marched into the second interview room, conducting his answers in sombre staccato sentences. When asked about his grass schedule, rage overtook logic. “I don’t know. I don’t know if I’m going to play on grass,” he said.

He did. He is 9-1 on grass this year.

And so he will meet Rafa in Friday’s semifinals. Both men are far removed from their greatest peaks, yet it could be argued that, as Nadal pursues his first Wimbledon title since 2010 and Djokovic chases his first major trophy since the 2016 French Open, this – their 52nd meeting – is one of their more significant matches.

FRIDAY'S ORDER OF PLAY (Centre Court, from 13:00 BST)

Kevin Anderson vs John Isner
Novak Djokovic vs Rafael Nadal#Wimbledon

— Wimbledon (@Wimbledon) July 12, 2018

There are many moving parts to a Nadal-Djokovic contest, but ultimately this match-up will rest significantly on whether Djokovic is ready to rise to a level he hasn’t touched consistently since 2016, and quality of his backhand – the stroke that has defined the match-up. With his ability to take the backhand early, pin Nadal’s forehand in crosscourt rallies and flip directions down the line at a whim, he is the only person in history who has consistently matched up well with the Spaniard.

Though Nadal has taken their two recent meetings, Djokovic has won 19 of their last 28 meetings.

However, throughout his recent struggles, Djokovic’s backhand has often been his most problematic stroke. This fortnight, it has at times produced the fluency of old but it is statistically his weaker wing, with 37 winners and 31 unforced errors compared to the 50 winners and 25 unforced errors from his forehand. For Djokovic to triumph, his backhand must withstand the Nadal barrage and be potent enough to poke the bear – Nadal’s forehand – without being ravaged.

Nadal on Djokovic: 'It's always a big challenge to face Novak. He's one of the most complex players I've seen in our sport. You can't win against him if you don't play very well. My goal is to play very well.'

— George Bellshaw (@BellshawGeorge) July 11, 2018

What makes this contest so great is that both men know they stand little chance unless they are constantly proactive. There have been times in matches between Djokovic and Andy Murray during which their similarities have promoted passivity, but this is not an option on Friday. Nadal knows this; where he finished with 67 winners and 34 unforced errors during his win over Del Potro. Even as he retrieved 172kmh-running forehand bullets, he was faithful to his late-career decision to play closer to the baseline and go after his own forehand when opportunity presented.

Djokovic and Nadal are used to facing each other deep in slams while at the top of their games; all but six of their previous 51 battles have occurred while both were in the top 5.

This is different. Yet what remains the same is that, as Rafa said, they will both try to play well, but there’s no limit to how well either could play yet still be defeated.