French Open #SmashTalk: Who will challenge Nadal?

Rafael Nadal heads into round three looking as dominant as ever at Roland Garros, the question is whether anyone can derail his charge towards an 11th French Open title.

The #SmashTalk team of Vivienne Christie, Piers Newbery and Leigh Rogers discusses whether there is a threat to the Spaniard out there somewhere, reflects on Serena Williams’ impressive second-round performance, and rates Novak Djokovic’s chances of challenging for the title.

We would love to know your thoughts on today’s big topics too. Have your say on Facebook and Twitter using #SmashTalk.

Can anyone in the top half stop Nadal?

Rafael Nadal beats Guido Pella 6-2 6-1 6-1 to reach round three.

Vivienne Christie: From a stats perspective, a top-half challenger to Nadal seems as unlikely as a Paris visit without pastries or wine. We can reasonably assume he makes it 16 straight over Richard Gasquet and look to likely opponents in the next few rounds: He has five straight wins over No.11 seed Diego Schwartzman, five over No.7 Kevin Anderson and five (completed matches) against No.3 Marin Cilic.

One potential threat is the in-form Borna Coric, who has beaten him twice before. But after that bullish win over Guido Pella, the 10-time champion has now won nine straight matches without losing a set. He’ll brush off any threat with the same casual ease that most people polish off a croissant.

ANALYSIS: Men’s and women’s title predictions

Piers Newbery: As I’m picking Serena to not win the tournament, I’m playing very safe and fully expect Nadal to be hoisting the trophy aloft for the 11th time. That said, I do think there are one or two players who can cause him problems on the way to finals day. To challenge Nadal in the vast open spaces of Court Philippe-Chatrier requires a huge physical effort, and a level of brute force that the likes of John Isner or Juan Martin del Potro could provide in the semifinals.

Even before then, the bullish nature of Borna Coric or Mischa Zverev’s refusal to play sitting duck on the baseline could offer a threat in the quarterfinals. Nadal might make it look easy, but that doesn’t mean it is. There is work to be done.

Leigh Rogers: No. Pencil in – actually pen in – Nadal to still be there late into the second week. Nadal owns a 15-0 head-to-record against his next opponent Richard Gasquet. The world No.32 Frenchman is also the highest-ranked player Nadal can meet before the quarterfinals. If the Spaniard can arrive in the final eight with plenty of energy in reserve and his momentum building, he is going to be even harder to stop.

Serenawatch – round two

Serena Williams beats Ash Barty 3-6 6-3 6-4 in the second round.

Leigh: That was an impressive win. When challenged, Serena’s ability to lift is still there – and that is a scary proposition for the rest of the field. Serena’s biggest test this fortnight could prove to be herself. Can she maintain her intensity in what is sure to be a physically and emotionally testing return to the Grand Slam stage?

She’s still alive in the doubles draw and launched her own clothing line this week – there’s a lot going on. If she can, Serena’s superhero-like catsuit would become even more apt.

"Her level when she's not quite on her best is still bloody good."@ashbar96 summed it up after falling to @serenawilliams on Thursday. Recap & Highlights: https://t.co/MxgZzb5ftD #RG18 pic.twitter.com/U7tQzzwwvl

— Roland-Garros (@rolandgarros) June 1, 2018

Vivienne: I should know better than to be surprised by Serena but I honestly thought her French Open outing would end with an admirable loss to Ash Barty in round two. Most telling, for me, is not that she’s finding a way to win but Serena’s post-match statement that she wants daughter Olympia to remember she “always tried (her) best”. With motherhood as a new motivator for the superstar, every other player should be very afraid.

Piers: I also thought that Barty had exactly the right game to take down an out-of-practice Serena, and should have known better. Seedings and rankings mean nothing now, even the draw isn’t a huge factor, despite there being tripwires around every corner in a wonderfully competitive women’s field. Serena knows she can beat every player out there, and everyone else knows that too, the defining factor still remains fitness.

Can the 36-year-old win seven matches in two weeks, on clay, having played four matches in the preceding 15 months? I still say no.

Is Djokovic really a contender?

Leigh: Novak Djokovic is and should be considered a French Open contender. The No.20 seed has an incredible clay-court record, having reached at least the quarterfinals in Paris for 11 of the past 12 years. The former world No.1’s form might have been shaky early in the season but he’s now won six of his past seven matches. His confidence is growing and another deep run in Paris looks likely.

Roberto Bautista Agut is a tough third round opponent – but I’m tipping the Serb to make a statement in a straight-sets win.

Vivienne: He’s yet to drop a set against Rogerio Dutra Silva or Jaume Munar but given they’re each ranked outside the top 130, I’m not ready to welcome Djokovic back into the Grand Slam-winning club just yet. Bautista Agut will be a more accurate indicator of the Serb’s form and confidence. The 20^th-seeded Djokovic has a 6-1 head-to-head record over the Spaniard but claimed each of his match wins while ranked in the world’s top two.

Piers: It’s encouraging to see one the game’s greats working his way back into form after such a prolonged and unexpected slump, but there is still a way to go. He’s made it through to the third round without dropping a set but the combination of surgical precision and electric movement that Djokovic maintained at his best remains absent – 76 winners to 69 unforced errors against two relatively lowly opponents is not the Djokovic of old.

The fact that his third-round match against Bautista Agut is tough to call accurately places Djokovic outside the Grand Slam contenders, for now at least.