Masters mayhem – upsets, absentees, new champions

An array of upsets and surprises in Indian Wells last week had us heading to Miami, and the next stop on the ATP World Tour Masters 1000 calendar, pondering the question – what is happening in men’s tennis right now?

Defending champion Roger Federer was the only former Masters 1000 winner left in the Indian Wells field by the quarterfinals, while the average rank of the last men standing was 24. Twelve months ago it was 15.

It is easy to attribute such a statistical anomaly to injuries. With world No.2 Rafael Nadal, No.7 David Goffin and No.11 Stan Wawrinka unable to compete this year, along with the likes of Andy Murray and Kei Nishikori, there is no denying the effect on the Indian Wells draw.

Yet the reality is the men’s game is incredibly unpredictable right now. That is not just a wild declaration – the numbers prove it.

> REPORT: Del Potro stuns Federer in thrilling final

New names make Masters breakthrough

ATP World Tour Masters 1000 events are the biggest tournaments in men’s tennis outside the four Grand Slams. Mandatory for the world’s top-ranked players, they always attract strong fields.

Yet Indian Wells is not the only recent tournament at this level to have produced some lower-ranked quarterfinalists. Comparing the average ranking of the quarterfinalists in the five most recent ATP World Tour Masters 1000 events against the previous year highlights it is an increasing trend:

Shanghai is an exception; however, the higher average ranking recorded in 2016 was skewed by world No.110 qualifier Mischa Zverev advancing to the quarterfinals.

It is interesting to note that Zverev was the only player ranked outside the world’s top 50 to advance to the final eight at any of these events in the 2016-17 period.

Contrastingly, six players ranked outside the top 50 reached a quarterfinal in the five most recent Masters 1000 events:

When comparing quarterfinalists ranked outside the world’s top 30, the deeper run of lower-ranked players in these events is even more pronounced:

Top 20, but not last eight

Who is most to blame for the average ranking of Masters 1000 quarterfinalists dropping? The top 20 players.

Only three top-20 ranked players advanced to the final eight in Indian Wells. Last year there were six.

This is a trend across the other recent ATP Masters 1000 tournaments too:

The last time more than half of the quarterfinalists in a Masters 1000 event were top-20 ranked players was at Rome in May.

Big Four dominance over?

Since the introduction of the ATP World Tour Masters 1000 structure in 2009, the ‘Big Four’ of Federer, Nadal, Murray and Novak Djokovic have shared 69 of the 83 titles.

Djokovic has won 26 titles, leading Nadal with 18, Federer with 13 and Murray with 12.

> OPINION: Woodbridge – It’s time for NowGen, not NextGen

Federer and Nadal shared five of the nine titles in 2017, but there were also breakthroughs for Alexander Zverev, Grigor Dimitrov and Jack Sock. Juan Martin del Potro continued that trend in 2018, winning his first at Indian Wells.

Players outside the Big Four have now won four of the past six ATP World Tour Masters 1000 titles.

Federer fights off transition time

This increased unpredictability is not necessarily a bad thing.

The results at Indian Wells created new storylines and thrust different players into the spotlight on the sport’s bigger stages:

• Croatia’s Borna Coric, touted as a future star for several years, made a huge breakthrough by reaching his first Masters 1000 semifinal and pushing Federer to the limit.
• Korean Hyeon Chung continued his stunning rise up the ranks, with the 21-year-old world No.26 reaching his first Masters 1000 quarterfinal.
• In his 13^th Indian Wells appearance, world No.21-ranked American Sam Querrey made the quarterfinals for the first time.

This doesn’t mean the men’s game is in a transition stage either – let’s not forget the world No.1 and runner-up was 36-year-old Federer, while champion del Potro might have won his first Masters 1000 title but the Argentine is now 29.

Change might be in the air, but not completely.