SmashDebate: Djokovic v Monfils

Is a second-round AO2018 meeting between Novak Djokovic and Gael Monfils as straightforward as it first appears?

The six-time Australian Open champion owns a 14-0 head-to-head record but the Frenchman has recently returned to title-winning form. Who wins? Tennis Smash writers Matt Trollope and Bede Briscomb debate.

Briscomb:

Happy New Year, Matt, I hope your debate performance improves because it looked a lot like Kristina Mladenovic’s win-loss record last year.

(Joking)

(But seriously)

La Monf will win this match. After a rough 2017, he’s back. Beat two quality opponents in Dominic Thiem and Andrey Rublev to win Qatar and backed it up with a solid straight sets win against rising star Jaume Munar.

What’s more, Novak is not.

He’s getting way of himself.  “I played perfect.” Relax, Nole. You played 2015 Delray Beach finalist Donald Young. He didn’t have to do anything to force errors; Young just made them time and time again.

I know Monfils is 0-14 H2H vs Djokovic but now, with six straight wins under his belt and Novak being all  “I’m just happy to be playing tennis I love tennis I’m playing perfect”, that is set to change.

Trollope:

Oh, hi Bede. Happy new year to you too!

Hmm, Djokovic v Monfils. The match-up everyone seems to get excited about until they delve into the H2H. You duly noted that it’s 14-0 in Novak’s favour. And I feel that dominance is set to continue when they meet in round two.

I was amused at how you dismissed Donald Young as an opponent when Monfils’ victory came against a player, whose name, until the other day, I had literally never seen. Young is a seasoned ATP player hovering just outside the top 60 – making Djokovic’s first-round performance all the more impressive, given his lengthy absence from tennis. He dropped just seven games!

The Serb returns to the site of his greatest career triumphs. He’s had time to heal physically and time to refresh mentally. He’s inspired again, with sage (and relatively new) voices in Andre Agassi and Radek Stepanek around him. He genuinely seems happy to be back competing. Those quotes of his you sneer at – surely you don’t doubt they’re genuine?

I think all of these factors – plus the ingrained confidence that comes with always beating the Frenchman – will combine nicely to see him beat Monfils yet again.

What say you?

Briscomb:

Yes, they’re genuine quotes – and they indicate a strong case of just-happy-to-be-thereitis.

Novak is a lame duck right now…

-New sponsorship deals

-Big win v your boy Donald Young

-Has consumed nothing but holistic Pepe Imaz-inspired green smoothies and activated almonds for over a week (okay I made that up)

While Gael has spent the last day and a half hearing the words “zero from 14” and how he might as well pack up and go home now. The high-flying Frenchman will be motivated, inspired and catch Djokovic off guard.

 Trollope:

Yeah, maybe. But the words “motivated” and “inspired” are ones I’ve rarely associated with Monfils. He should have been as motivated and inspired as ever when he took on Djokovic in the US Open 2016 semis, for a shot at his first Grand Slam final. And then he put in one of the more bizarre performances we’ve seen from a player at that stage of a major tournament.

I feel we’ve been burned by Gael too many times. All the talent in the world. A ranking that’s hovered briefly inside the top 10, and a few Grand Slam semifinals. But he’s never kicked on. The headline “new year, new Monfils” is one I’ve seen time and time again. I need to see it to believe it. Yet these doubts don’t extend to Novak – I’ve seen plenty from him over the years to be a believer.

Lengthy time on the sidelines has done wonders for several players recently – the most notable examples being Roger Federer throughout 2017 and Sloane Stephens in the US hardcourt season of the same year. Don’t underestimate the freeing power of playing loose, happy and without pressure …

 Briscomb: 

Fair points. I recognise I’m in the minority with this take but I’ve been on S.S Gael for over a decade and I didn’t jump ship when we almost capsized last year so I’m damn sure not gonna do it now.

Look for Monfils to be aggressive early, testing Djokovic’s elbow with repeated deep balls to the Serb’s right side. Given nothing has worked for him in the past, I also think Gael will take plenty of chances and play with nothing to lose; he’ll look to play fast points in the effort to make Djokovic work hard and think on his toes. Will Nole be up to the task? No.

Anyway, good debate. No matter the result, it will be an excellent duel.

 Trollope: 

All good – stick with your man, and I hope he doesn’t disappoint. But I’m sticking with Novak, who’s got the best Open era record at the Australian Open.

Here’s hoping Gael is motivated and on-song. Here’s hoping Novak is technically sharp and pain-free. If that’s the case, then it will be the pick of the second round matches at Melbourne Park this year.

Bring it on.