Predicting the 2018 year-end ATP rankings

Published by Bede Briscomb

Roger Federer, Grigor Dimitrov and Rafael Nadal are the top 3 men in the world; Getty Images
With the ATP season just getting underway, we predict how the top ten will look in 11 months time.

The ATP season is underway and it’s shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable seasons of all time. With a handful of injured veterans and another handful of young guns looking to take the next step, there are very little certainties this year — but that’s not going to stop us from speculating! So without further ado, let’s get out our crystal balls and predict how the top ten will look 11 months from now.

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Player Rank
Grigor Dimitrov No. 1
Roger Federer No. 2
Alexander Zverev No. 3
Rafael Nadal No. 4
Novak Djokovic No. 5
Dominic Thiem No. 6
Andy Murray No. 7
Juan Martin del Potro No. 8
Milos Raonic No. 9
Kei Nishikori No. 10

Predictions

Dimitrov: 62-10, Australian Open, Cincinnati

Save for a so-so clay court swing, Dimitrov’s season was very good; he covered the court exceptionally well and his skills were consistently sharp. After a maiden Masters 1000 trophy and the ATP Finals in London, Grigor is ready for his final form. What’s more, most of his competition is either injured, recovering from an injury, playing a managed scheduled or still a year or two away from being dominant.

Federer: 50-7, Wimbledon, Indian Wells, Miami

“There’s no point for me to put in all the mega hours anymore, because I know I have it in the vault, I have it there if need be.” With the ‘Less is More’ strategy, Roger Federer has figured it out.  Yes, he will have a bucketload of points to defend everywhere he goes but it doesn’t matter because Roger’s talent, poise and experience is in a league of its own and can be turned on with the flick of a switch. Like the Golden State Warriors in the NBA, it doesn’t matter how big the target is on Roger’s back, he is able to coast from game-to-game and when it’s time to win, he puts on the jets.

Roger Federer played his second five setter in as many days, this time needing three hours to battle past Mikhail Youzhny. Photo: Getty Images

Zverev: 59-19, Toronto

There are three issues holding back Zverev (which, BTW, is a crazy-low number of issues for a 20-year-old): 1. He doesn’t have the maturity to withstand two weeks of best-of-five matches 2. He can let his emotions get the better of him 3. He struggles at the net. The second and third ones will improve with age;  the first is a concern. As we’ve seen with so many greats, talent only gets you so far in Grand Slams. You need the memory of a goldfish on bad shots and a rabid hunger for more on the good ones. Zverev will show flashes of a No.1 this year, sustaining it is a whole other story.

Nadal: 55-12, Roland Garros, Monte-Carlo, Rome

He’s going to dominate the clay season. He always does. What changes for Rafa this year is his schedule. Nadal finished No.1 in 2017 behind 67 match wins, so you can’t say it was a mistake to play as frequently as he did, but it’s going to take a toll on his body in 2018. While he’s built a legacy on grinding out wins, he’ll need to take a page out of Roger’s book and practice less, play less 500s and rest more. I think the shift in mindset will be difficult at first, however, champions always find a way to make it work — and Rafa is nothing if not a champion.

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Djokovic: 46-10, US Open, Paris, ATP Finals 

Novak will start slow and work his way into form.  The question marks around his competitive mindset are overblown. The only issue is his elbow, which is a shame considering his success in Australia, Miami and well…everywhere, I guess. Look for Djokovic to pick up steam in July and then completely dominate the final third of the season.

Novak Djokovic mastered the clay in 2016. Photo: Getty Images

Thiem: 52-26, Madrid 

Thiem will win a Masters 1000 trophy and reach the final of Roland Garros in 2018. His performance on quicker surfaces will improve early on but I see him fading badly behind the enormous wear and tear he puts on his body. Three titles in 2015, four in 2016 and just one in 2017 – you have to think he’ll return to some semblance of form this year (at the 250 level, at least).

Murray: 46-14, Shanghai

Murray needs to be 100% healthy and match-fit to dominate. There will be patches of that in 2018, and he will save his best for the Slams, but a hip injury is easy to re-injure, hard to recover from and is extremely painful. “I’m just hoping I can get back to a level where I’m able to be competitive…I don’t mind if it’s 30 in the world level,” Murray said at the Brisbane International yesterday. Forget about top 30, if he is able to play more than 60 matches this year, he’s a lock for top ten.

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Del Potro: 47-17

If Del Potro was healthy to start the year in 2017 who knows how high he could have been ranked. The Tower of Tandil came into the season significantly underdone and once his conditioning improved ripped off a dominant three-month stretch of tennis. Still a few years younger than the Rafa, Novak and Andy, del Potro has at least one consistently good season left in him. Remarkably, he comes to Melbourne as one of the few seasoned veterans without an injury complaint.

It was a muted celebration given Dominic Thiem's injury-related retirement, but Juan Martin del Potro was nonetheless thrilled to reach his first major quarterfinal in more than three years; Getty Images

Raonic: 46-18

Often injured, Raonic has observed Federer’s approach to the season and will try to imitate his success by focusing less on lower-level tournaments. Look for him to impress in Grand Slams and go deep at the Canadian Open. Raonic said it was a mistake to ‘[chase] help all time’ instead of focusing on his game. The powerful Canadian will be a lot more cautious this time around so don’t be surprised if he sits out a week or two every now and again.

Nishikori: 45-20

With little to defend Nishikori should clean up in 2018. There’s one problem: his wrist. Despite having a lot of success in Melbourne, Kei will start the season slow and build into the clay season. Don’t be surprised if he wins one of Cincinnati, Montreal or Madrid and goes deep in New York. He has also had success in Miami but I think that’s too soon.

 

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