SmashDebate: will Dimitrov go all the way to No.1?

Published by Matt Trollope & Bede Briscomb

Grigor Dimitrov celebrates his victory at the ATP Finals in London; Getty Images
Can Grigor Dimitrov use his victory at the ATP Finals as a springboard to bigger and better things in 2018? Our writers debate both sides of the argument.

Grigor Dimitrov capped the best season of his career with victory on Sunday at the ATP Finals.

Completing a magical week in London with a flawless 5-0 record, the Bulgarian ends the year at world No.3 and brimming with confidence as he goes into the off season.

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“Of course, one of my main goals is to win a Grand Slam tournament. This has always been, again, a dream of mine. Now slowly I think this thing is getting there,” he said.

“I think I’ve had good results in the past, but now I need to be even more consistent on those kind of events and in the same time raise up my level on occasions like this. Obviously, this is a great, unbelievable achievement for me, yes, but I just still have a lot to give.”

Will he use this victory as a springboard to the very top of the game?

Our writers Matt Trollope and Bede Briscomb give their views when they thrash it out in the latest SmashDebate.

Trollope: no

Hi Bede!

Another week, another debate. This time it’s whether or not Dimitrov can ascend to world No.1. The time seems right – he’s just won the biggest title of his career to cap a best-ever season and ends the year at world No.3. He seems perfectly poised, one would think …

Unfortunately, I’m not so sure. The talk around season-ending championships winners is often about whether they’ll use that triumph as a platform to greater success the following year. It happened when Nikolay Davydenko, also a former world No.3, won the same title in 2009 and big things were expected of him heading into Australian Open 2010. That failed to materialise. And he never got that high again. It happened just last month too when Caroline Wozniacki – another No.3 – won the WTA Finals. Will it translate to her long-awaited first major title in 2018?

Like Caroline and like Nikolay, I see the same fate befalling Grigor. Not because he’s not talented, but because we’ve heard this narrative before. He’s always been pegged as a future major champion and No.1. And he was threatening to reach the heights in 2014 when he cracked the top 10 and reached the Wimbledon semifinals. Here we are again, three years later, following another major semifinal (Australian Open 2017) and top-10 season.

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I think this is his ceiling purely because the other guys who typically do win the majors and hold the No.1 ranking continue to own him. And they’re not going anywhere.

Your thoughts?

Briscomb: yes

I think we can both agree Grigor is two steps down from the GOATs, and one step down from Murray and Stan. In fact, he may not even be in the Nishikori/Raonic/Cilic group yet. So why will he finish world No.1?

Roger = old
Rafa = knee
Novak = elbow
Murray = hip
Stan = knee
Nishikori = wrist
Raonic = always got something and Dimi owns him head-to-head anyway

At 26-years-old (turning 27 in May 2018), Grigor is perfectly placed to climb to the top of the mountain because there are so many question marks around literally all of his competitors.

Trollope

Yes, there are a lot of question marks surrounding those players you mention. But those question marks concerned problems that afflicted them in 2017. Will they persist in 2018 and keep them down? I don’t believe so.

We all saw the restorative effects of time off that benefitted Roger and Rafa this year. The “old” Swiss won two majors. And the Spaniard with the dodgy knees won the other two. Nadal has always rebounded from his knee issues, and he is after all just 31 – which these days is increasingly young in tennis terms.

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Should all – or even some – of those other players return healthy, motivated and re-energised in 2018, Dimitrov will have his work cut out for him. A little look at his H2Hs:

Federer: 0-6
Nadal: 1-10
Djokovic: 1-6
Murray: 3-8

He does better against the other players you mentioned, but against the Big Four, it’s a collective 5-30. That’s an ugly stat.

And as long as they’re around, I think they’ll continue to hold him at bay.

Briscomb

Show me a human on this earth that has a GOOD record against those guys.

I think Roger and Rafa, the two most freakish tennis players ever to grace a tennis court, were the exception to the rule, rather than an indication of a new tennis truism.

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The players standing in the way of Dimitrov getting to world No.1 aren’t the GOATs, it’s the Next Gen. And by that I mean Zverev and Kyrgios, and to a lesser extent Chung, Shapovalov and Rublev. For the first time in his career next year, the Bulgarian will need to use his experience in big moments to keep those surging players at bay, because if they get a whiff of success then it’s Goodbye, Grigor and Hello, Hyeon.

Trollope

Nobody has a good record against them. But Stan and Delpo have certainly fared better than Grigor …

Speaking of records, much was made of Dimitrov’s perfect 5-0 week in London. I can’t fault that. But I can note his opposition. Those wins came against Thiem, Goffin, Carreno Busta, Sock and Goffin again. Make of that what you will.

And yes, I agree with you. Dimitrov not only has to contend with the Big Four who are already established, but the Next Gen coming up behind him. By the time Roger, Rafa, Novak and Andy depart, players like Zverev, Kyrgios, Shapovalov, Rublev, etc will be stronger, more experienced and definitely talented enough to match it with Dimitrov.

I fear that like other members of the “Lost Gen” (also including Raonic and Nishikori) Dimitrov is something of a victim of timing – his career arc could well negatively coincide with two incredible generations.

If he’s ever going to win a Slam and reach No.1, next year is the time to do it. And I just don’t see it.

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Briscomb

It’s true. Dimitrov could of gone to the WTA Elite Trophy in Zhuhai and faced tougher competition than he did last week.

But the fact remains he has been building for a while; AO semifinal, Wimbledon quarters, Cincinnati Masters and two 250s over Nishikori and Goffin to boot.

He’s finally captured the thing that’s been alluding him all this time: belief that he can do it. No one questions the talent – when he’s on, Dimitrov’s versatility, instincts and creativity makes him one of the scariest all-courters in the last ten years. The only trouble is that when the big moment arrives he becomes a baby deer in front of a giant headlight and all of those natural abilities fade.

Now that he’s done it on one of the biggest stages I think he will be out for world No.1. And with such a tight window to do it in, the Bulgarian will be in a hurry. 2018’s the year.

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