Fantasy Tennis Insider: It’s Venus time!

Published by FTL Insider

Venus Williams is a big underdog to win the WTA Finals which makes her a unique Fantasy Tennis option; Getty Images

Well, compadres, it’s WTA Finals time. Each woman will play a minimum of three matches and there are 40 and 20 bonus Fantasy Tennis points for the winner and runner-up respectively. With such a new crop of players competing this year it’s going to take some hard-nosed analysis to make the right selections.

First, let’s get the men out of the way…

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ATP: Who to replace Rafa?

Rafael Nadal ($22m, 26.5% owned) has withdrawn from Basel with knee soreness so leave him on the bench. The Spaniard is still likely to play the Paris Masters and ATP Finals so don’t waste a trade on him.

Roger Federer ($22.8m, 33.5% owned) is primed for another big one. The maestro has won Basel seven times and two in the last three years. He is also coming off a win in Shanghai and is 25-2 since the halfway point of the year.

Marin Cilic ($16.2m, 5.5% owned) is a good selection. The world No.4 won the Swiss Indoors last year and, with Nadal pulling out and Zverev playing in Vienna, he will be the second seed and should meet Federer in the final. He is 18-5 since the halfway point of the year.

David Goffin ($9.6m, 11.3% owned) is a nice pick, too. Last year Goffin only made the second round in Basel, but in 2015 he made the quarterfinals and in 2014 reached the final. He has also won 88% of his matches since the September. The Belgian has practically played non-stop since the US Open and he definitely looked tired in Shanghai – consider that before you make a decision on him.

The artist formerly known as David Ferrer ($7.9m, 5.8% owned) is my smokey of the week because of his massive success in Vienna: in ’14 he was a finalist, in ’15 a champion and in ’16 a semifinalist. The 35-year-old is definitely cooked; he’s averaging 24.5 Fantasy Tennis points and has a meagre 55% win percentage on the year. But he has won a title and scored 50+ points three times in 2017 so it’s not inconceivable that he can perform one last time at one of his favourite tournaments.

If the Ferrer is not your tempo, and I don’t blame you if he’s not, then anyone of Alexander Zverev ($9.4m, 33.5% owned; safe pick who is due for a big showing, Juan Martin del Potro ($10.23m, 9.4% owned; playing in Basel, 10-3 since September), Jo-Wilfred Tsonga ($5.6m, 7.2% owned; injured, but finalist in Vienna last year) or Robert Bautista Agut ($8.4m, 5.4% owned; high floor, low ceiling Spaniard) are solid picks.

TL;DR: Federer is a must and Cilic/Zverev/Goffin are your next best options

Not sure who to captain? Check out the Fantasy Tennis Captain’s Corner column every Saturday

WTA: Venus Williams…really?

Yes, really.

First, let’s look at some key WTA Finals-related stats:

Player Ind. hardcourt win%/matches played WTA Finals record Titles/finals Rec. since US hard court swing Win % vs. top ten players
Halep 59%/73 5-6 0-1 11-5 56%
Muguruza 64%/36 4-3 0-0 12-4 52%
Svitolina 64%/43 0-0 N/A 9-4 40%
Pliskova 64%/91 1-2 0-1 12-5 46%
V. Williams 88%/85 11-5 1-0 8-3 67%
Wozniacki 77%/77 9-7 0-1 10-5 55%
Ostapenko 63%/68 0-0 N/A 13-4 48%
Garcia 53%/62 0-0 N/A 15-3 41%

Venus Williams ($11.4m, 4.4% owed) has history on her side, followed by Caroline Wozniacki ($8.4m, 10.8% owned). Former years may have skewed this slightly, however this is a unique year in that there are so many inexperienced players in the draw — and therefore a lot of unknown. I’m a conservative Insider; when there are so many question marks I’d prefer to go with the known commodities, and that is Williams (and, to a lesser extent, Wozniacki).

Simona Halep ($10.8m, 7% owned) is the odds-on favourite and that’s because she’s experienced a good recent run of form, has experience in the WTA Finals and performs dutifully against the top ten players. She will be brimming with confidence as the new world No.1, too.

If you place more value on recent form then Caroline Garcia ($12m, 3.7% owned) or Jelena Ostapenko ($10m, 3.5% owned) are your picks. The two have been stellar in the final quarter of the year. Garcia’s win percentage against top players is concerning but if you’re going by the ‘Eye Test’ then you can be convinced quite easily.

TL;DR:In order, I rank it: Venus, Garcia, Svitolina, Wozniacki, Halep, Muguruza, Ostapenko, Pliskova

Splitting Hairs

  • Dominic Thiem or Jelena Ostapenko? Ostapenko
  • Roger Federer or Venus Williams? Federer
  • Marin Cilic or David Goffin? Cilic
  • Roberto Bautista Agut or Pablo Carreno Busta? Bautista Agut
  • Karolina Pliskova or Alexander Zverev? Zverev
  • Caroline Wozniacki or Juan Martin del Potro? Wozniacki

Buy/sell

Buy: Venus Williams — Not cheap but Queen V is going to feast on her inexperienced competition in Singapore

Sell: Karolina Pliskova — A number of tough losses since September and now issues with countrywoman Strycova and a new coach will see her unfocused heading into the WTA Finals

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