Fantasy Tennis Insider: Who’s going to perform in Shanghai?

Are you ready compadres? Game Week 33 is the Your-Best-Shot-To-Make-A-Big-Jump-In-The-Overall-Rankings Cup.

Okay, it’s actually the Shanghai Rolex Masters, and with 40 bonus points on the men’s side up for grabs, most eyeballs will be firmly locked on this tournament. There’s also plenty of action on the women’s side with events in Linz, Hong Kong and Tianjin.

So what should you do for this pivotal Game Week? As always, read on to find out…

ATP: Roger, Rafa…and who else?

The most important decision on the men’s side will be your pick for captain, so check out Friday’s Captains Corner column for the best bets.

If you’ve had Roger Federer ($23.2m, 33% owned) stashed away on your bench for the last four weeks, now is the time to dust him off. Barring something catastrophic, he’ll play in Shanghai and might be the favourite to win the title. He hasn’t been as dominant as he has in other Masters 1000s but has still made the semifinals three times and been a finalist or won it all twice respectively. Comparatively, Nadal has been to the finals in Shanghai twice for one win.

Roberto Bautista-Agut ($9.6m, 6.1% owned) made last year’s final in Shanghai and, if you remove his stinker in Cincinnati, is averaging 48 Fantasy Tennis points from his last five Game Weeks. If you take out his finals run the Spaniard is a meagre 5-6 in his last three Asian swings so I wouldn’t pick him with a great deal of confidence.

Marin Cilic ($16.24m, 5.5% owned) is not worth his hefty price tag. His recent record in the Asian swing is 11-7 which includes two first-round bombs in Shanghai. I’d much rather, in order and excluding Roger and Rafa, the following players: A. Zverev, Goffin, Anderson and (maybe) Dimitrov.

I’m officially done with Dominic Thiem ($8.4m, 24.5% owned) until April next year. The Austrian is currently the sixth highest scorer this year but almost all of his big Game Weeks have come on clay. With consecutive first-round bombs in Chengdu and Tokyo and no clay tournaments scheduled for the rest of the year, I can’t see him producing the scores his price warrants.

With today's loss, Dominic Thiem officially has a losing career record on hard courts over best of 3 (54-55). That's… dreadful.

— Tumaini Carayol (@tumcarayol) October 3, 2017

Struggling for cash? Denis Shapovalov ($5.2m, 5.6% owned) has been awarded a wildcard for Shanghai and has scored above 58 Fantasy Tennis points in his last two Game Weeks.

And if you’re really struggling then say hello to Gilles Simon ($3m, 6% owned)! The 32-year-old Frenchman is most likely cooked–he’s 13-21 and might drop out of the top 50–but his past three Shanghai outings read SF, 3R, F.  That’s a better form guide than Roger and Rafa.

TL;DR: Don’t be afraid to take a flyer from left field if you need to make up ground.

Related: Follow the FTL Insider for news, tips and advice on your team

WTA: Late-season bolters

I said last week that Ash Barty ($8.1m, 3.2% owned) was a decent smokey option. Forget that; Barty is turning into a premium you need to seriously consider to finish the year. She’s averaging 55.8 Fantasy Tennis points from her last three matches, which is good for top five among women. The Aussie is also set to compete for the WTA Elite Trophy in Zhuhai, and with form on her side you won’t want to be the owner who passes as she nabs another 50+ score. It’s unclear if Barty will play in Game Week 33 so follow me on Twitter for updates on that.

Caroline Garcia ($8.95m, 3.4% owned) is my pick of the week. The Frenchwoman is coming off 112 Fantasy Tennis points and is averaging 60 from her last three. She’s scheduled to play in Tianjin–a 250 tournament with weak competition; Kvitova, Sharapova the only challengers–so bring her in and don’t think twice.

Maria Sharapova ($8.63m, 1% owned) announced she would play in Tianjin, which makes the five-time Grand Slam champ worth considering. If you take out Game Week 24 (injured) and conservatively project her current Game Week score to be 50, Sharapova is averaging 41 Fantasy Tennis points. That’s equal with Garbine Muguruza and just below Alexander Zverev. The Russian is no stranger to success in Asia having won the 2014 China Open.

If you’ve got Garbine Muguruza ($11.84, 17.7% owned), don’t sell just yet. Yes, she’s set to plummet in value but that’s only because she’s been playing with a virus. You’re going to want her come WTA Finals so stash her on the bench and make sure to wish her a speedy recovery!

TL;DR: Hold Garbi and take your pick from Barty, Garcia and Sharapova.

Check out who is playing next week with the Player Calendar

Splitting Hairs

• Sloane Stephens or Karolina Pliskova? Pliskova
• Carolina Garcia or Simona Halep? Garcia
• Sam Querrey or Milos Raonic? Raonic
• Roberto Bautista-Agut or Pablo Carreno Busta? Bautista-Agut
• Ash Barty or Nick Kyrgios? Barty
• Caroline Wozniacki or Roger Federer? Federer
• Alexander Zverev or Jelena Ostapenko? Ostapenko
• Elina Svitolina or Dominic Thiem? Svitolina

Buy/Sell

Buy: Gilles Simon — excellent form in Shanghai

Sell: Madison Keys — bad wrist is ruining her good run; plenty of other options to choose from