SmashDebate: Roger v Rafa – who will be the GOAT?

On Sunday night Rafael Nadal won his 16th Grand Slam title and reignited the most famous and pressing question in tennis history: when it’s all said and done, who will be the greatest player of all time (GOAT)?

Nadal is four years younger than Federer and is 23-14 head-to-head, but Roger has won 19 more career titles and three more Major titles. So who will it be? Let’s debate…

Briscomb: Rafa Nadal

First, let’s keep it simple: The GOAT question starts and ends with the man with the most Grand Slams. So here’s a prediction that I’m 83% certain of: Rafael Nadal will finish his career with more Majors than Roger Federer.

CHECK OUT: Woodbridge – Roger, Rafa and the GOAT question

Because I’ve heard it all before, let me save you some time and debunk all your predictable arguments;

Blah blah blah: Nadal puts tremendous stress on his body and won’t last as long as Roger: Nadal has played — and won – the most matches of anyone inside the top 20 this year. And save for jumping into a ceiling at Wimbledon, he hasn’t even looked like getting injured.

Blah: Thiem, Zverev, Kyrgios and the rest of the next gen are coming. They’re all extremely talented but none of the Next Gen players have even a tenth of Rafa’s mental or physical stamina and will to win. They just don’t make players like the Spanish bull and never will.

Blah: Roger is good for at least one more Wimbledon: Nope. All the RF caps in the world couldn’t save him and his bad back.

Blah: Nadal can’t win on hard courts. Well, he just did.

Blah: Djokovic, Murray, Stan et al will come back and dominate in 2018. I’ll grant you Nole, but none of the others scare a fully fit and raging Rafael Nadal.

Nadal’s got another year atop the world rankings and he’ll win at least two French Opens (but probably three) and two from the other Major tournaments. And he’ll probably add a few more Masters 1000s to his all-time record of 30, too.

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Thorne: It’s obviously Roger

Whoa! Blah blah blahs aside, you’re argument had almost nothing to do with what we’re actually talking about here: who is the GOATs

You can throw in as many Zverev, Kyrgios and Stan arguments as you like, but none of them have any impact on who is the GOAT. In fact, only Djokovic has the credentials to be thrown into this conversation (but he needs a big recovery in his form to be a bona fide GOAT).

Let’s get one thing straight: Greatness isn’t purely a measure of success. Want proof? Who’s the greatest boxer of all time? Muhammed Ali. Did he win more fights than every other boxer? Not even close. But the man that he was, the way that he fought, the success that he had, and the fans he attracted all combined to make him the greatest.

Roger is the tennis equivalent.

Let’s take his sublime shotmaking, style and longevity out of the conversation for the moment. Nobody in the history of tennis has transcended the sport like the Great One – the guy was rated the second most trusted and admired person on earth after Nelson Mandela for goodness’ sakes by the Respect Institute (Bill Gates was third).

Marry that reputation and respect – both within the sport and outside of it – with an obscene amount of match wins, prize money and Grand Slam titles and you have a man who is, without a doubt, the Greatest of his Generation (I’m not a fan of the All Time thing).

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Briscomb: But Rafa is equally respected, has fought just as hard and has just as many fans (more, actually, if Twitter followers is your measurement). Because Roger is older, I’ll concede that he transcended the sport, as almost every Next Gen player models themselves after him. But because Rafa meets Roger in every single intangible (apart from the English language and hairline… thanks, ESPN, for all those shots of the top of his head) we have nothing else but to crown the GOAT based on one big, beautiful round number. Right now, Roger’s 19 Grand Slams makes him the greatest, but Rafa’s coming for him, and when the man with the greatest will to win tennis has ever seen is coming for you – you better watch out.

Thorne: Okay, so let’s take the fact Roger is the most respected, and one of the most monied athletes – from any sport – in the world out of it and look at some cold hard facts: he’s owns Rafa in every metric that doesn’t involve a clay court. Match wins (1119 v 862), tournament wins (93 v 74), Grand Slam titles (19 v 16), weeks at No.1 (302 v 145)… need me to carry on? It’s simple, Roger has the stats, he has the money, he has the mojo and he even has the hairline to be called the GOAT.

Briscomb: Well, he’s also four years older – so those records, while impressive, are all within touching distance; especially given he’s set to compete for at least a couple of years without Federer. Here’s a stat: Nadal has the best record against the big four with 58% winning percentage. He’s also 73.5% vs the big four in Slams. The ‘Great One’ is at 45% and 42% respectively; so while he beats up on mere mortals, he’s well below average against the very best – which is very un-GOAT. Just so we’re clear: right now, Roger’s GOAT-dom is unquestionable. But if there’s one man who can catch him, it’s Rafa – and I’m about 83 per cent sure of it.

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Thorne: I’ll concede that Rafa can catch him on some of those numbers (although I think plenty are way out of his reach). And yes Rafa may have a better win record against zzzz…. One stat. That’s all you’ve got? Seriously?! I expected more, Briscomb (two stats, maybe?). But, seriously, Greatness is a package deal – it’s no pick-and-mix value meal. Roger has the records, the numbers, the style, the popularity, the respect (both inside the sport and out), and the fans. He is the player every tournament wants to have in their draw, because he’s the player every fan wants to watch. Whatever happens with the Slam count, he is the GOAT.