SmashDebate: Keys vs Stephens

On Sunday night, Americans Madison Keys and Sloane Stephens will do battle at Arthur Ashe stadium for their first Grand Slam title.

The pair have only clashed once, a 2015 match up in Miami that Stephens won 6-4 6-2. Keys is coming off a semifinal walloping of CoCo Vandeweghe, while Stephens’ form is so white-hot that she is set to see her ranking rise from world No.957 to a projected No.20 in the space of just six weeks.

So who’s going to win the US Open? Let’s debate…

Briscomb: Stephens 6-3 6-3
Ah, my first debate with Matt Trollope and I’d bet my life savings he picks the player with no ‘IT’ factor. Madison Keys is not only dull, she’s a tennis player that isn’t really elite at any one thing.

Sure, she’s in the final, but that’s because she’s cruised on an easy draw. Keys just takes what her opponents give her. So far that’s worked, but it won’t against the new-and-improved-and-totally-terrifying Sloane Stephens. Stephens is fast, powerful, healthy, happy and for the first time in her career, she believes.

Having just beaten Venus in a clutch semifinal, Sloane now knows she’s good enough to win a major title. They may be best friends but Stephens smells blood and when the new-and-improved-and-totally-terrifying Sloane Stephens smells blood, friendship means squat.

Related: Sloane Stephens – back on track and better than ever

Trollope: Keys 6-4 3-6 6-3
Oh, hi Bede! Wow, that’s harsh on Madison. Not elite? She only possess the most powerful groundstrokes in women’s tennis – registering higher speeds than most men, too – and has one of the best serves in the game, leading the ace tally at this year’s US Open. She’s most certainly elite, and the way she dismantled CoCo Vandeweghe on Thursday night was frightening.

I would say that rather than take what her opponents give her, she doesn’t let her opponents give her anything to begin with. Her style is first-strike tennis at its finest, and when it clicks, no one can contend.

I have a lot of time for Sloane – she does everything well and is a potent blend of fearsome offence and athletic defense, but I believe Madison’s ceiling is higher. Sloane’s played a lot of matches in a better-than-expected comeback and the bubble must surely soon burst. Madison has always seemed more destined for Slam success than Sloane, and it will show in Saturday’s final.

Briscomb: Madison’s ceiling is higher? Have you seen the new-and-improved-and-totally-terrifying Sloane Stephens? Her defense is at the level of 2016 Kerber, she’s zipping around the court like Davenport and her instincts at the net are, dare I say it, Navratilova-esque.

It’s a small sample size, yes, but this woman has something special. Keys may have power but Sloane has elite athleticism to absorb the hard strikes and a frugal mind to stay patient when Madison does get a run on.

Despite the surface I expect long, tiresome points that will take its toll on Keys over time.

Related: Fantasy Tennis Insider – Time to sell Fedal?

Trollope: Oh yes, I’ve seen all those things that make Sloane great. She’s a star. But comparing her to the great Martina at net? Let’s just cool our jets for a bit.

I agree, all of those factors will make Sloane a tricky prospect for Madison, but she’s had to beat a very similar opponent right here in New York – Elina Svitolina. The Ukrainian plays with the same combination of consistently, athletic defense and aggression as Sloane, and Madison withstood the challenge.

That fourth-round win may actually prove the perfect dress rehearsal for Keys – in the past she may have pulled the trigger against such an opponent and disintegrated in errors, but this is a more patient Madison, more willing to construct points. She can employ the same tactics against Sloane, and wear her down with her superior power.

Briscomb: Fine. I’ll give you Svitolina. But this pick isn’t just about athleticism  — Sloane’s mentality is devastating right now. How many tennis players can lose 0-6 in the second set of a Grand Slam semifinal (to a 7-time Grand Slam champ and  former No.1, mind you) and regroup to play some of the most poised shots in the clutch we’ve seen all year? I could count the total number on my hand.