Woodbridge: things working out perfectly for Federer

Few people are better placed to discuss the potential storylines and outcomes at Wimbledon than a person who’s won here before.

And Todd Woodbridge has won this title almost more than anyone.

With nine men’s doubles trophies and a title in mixed at the All England Club, the 10-time Wimbledon champion has been a keen observer of the men’s game in the lead-up to the event and has his ideas as to who will thrive and who won’t survive at Wimbledon in 2017.

We sat down with him and asked for his thoughts.

It seems the men’s tournament feels more wide open than it has in previous years. Who do you think will come away with the title?

“I don’t agree with that. I see two, potentially three people who could win the tournament. I’d like to see how Rafa settles into the tournament and how he looks on grass, but Roger has to be the favourite at this point. It’s just again working out perfectly for him. My view is that I would have liked to see Rafa play a tournament. I think that’s going to hurt his chances for winning Wimbledon. I certainly have to understand his team had to make a call on whether he gets fresh and recovers from that massive effort (at Roland Garros) and try to win here. Historically when he’s played well here and won or been in finals, he’s played a (lead-up) tournament. And he’s the kind of guy who needs that match play to feel comfortable with where he sits on the baseline on grass, so that he sits up in the court a little more and remains offensive doesn’t get deep and defensive.

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“For that reason I lean towards Roger. I saw him yesterday – he’s relaxed, looking fit, and he’s not strained in any way. The more I’ve gotten into this (media) role, I look at their faces because I know as a player how the mind works and when you get to these events, I can look at stress levels through their face. He looks as relaxed and confident as possibly he’s ever been coming in here. And that for me means he goes in as favourite. Rafa goes in as second.”

So who’s the third player?

“With Djokovic playing well this week, I don’t think you can dispel him now. I think things are starting to turn the right way for him. I think the mental games that have been going on for him, having now lost the French, that major’s gone, there’s nothing there really to defend now, so I think the pressure goes off him. I think he can be on the offense against all these guys again. I think he’s looked lighter down at Eastbourne. He’s had a real focus on getting there. The hardest thing for a champion is to actually take a step backward, and a step down, to get back to the top. They often feel they don’t need to. In my view, him choosing to go and play there (at an ATP 250), he’s taken a step backward, to make himself reach his peak in terms of matches and confidence to come here to be able to win. He needed to do what he did and I think that’s going benefit him greatly.”

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Since 2012, Rafael Nadal has routinely under-performed at Wimbledon, failing to get past the fourth round. Why is this the year he goes deeper?

“I think his preparation over the last 18 months has been to get to this level again. He wasn’t playing at that level the last few years; it wasn’t the same Rafa, even when he was winning the French. Now we’re seeing the Rafa we saw five, six years ago. He was aggressive, more in your face. He became tentative for a couple of years; his forehand was short, his second serve was dodgy. But both of those shots are on song again. And that makes a difference for him on grass.

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“That’s why I want to watch (his) first couple of matches – to see where he’s positioning himself on court. Don’t forget he lost an exhibition match to Berdych a couple of days ago (at Hurlingham), which Roger was quick to tell me about. They count for nothing but they’re also an indication of ball striking and how he’ll go against a big, flat hitter. He lost 3 and 2 pretty comfortably to Berdych. So I won’t read too much into that, but that’s still one of the points I’d be looking at.”

What of our defending champion?

“I don’t think Andy has a chance of winning this year. He didn’t defend so well last time (in 2014, after winning in 2013) … his form’s been so erratic. He’s been tentative. To lose to Jordan Thompson (at Queen’s) the way he did, if he’d been on tactically he should have been able to get through and expose Jordan’s weaknesses. But he didn’t. Which means he’s not confident. And I think it’s hard to go all the way here when you’re not confident. He is a fighter and a grinder, but I don’t think he’s going to have that confidence and ball-striking at the back end of the tournament that a Rafa and Roger and even a Novak will have.”

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Outside of the Big Four, who do you think holds the best chance of success?

“I don’t think you’re going to see Raonic do what he did last year (in making the final) because he hasn’t played enough tennis. Del Potro for me is always that floater who can come through, but he has Djokovic (potentially in round three), which makes it tough. Wawrinka is the floater – he’s got Paul Annacone working with him. This guy’s such a great ball-striker. If he gets going and gets some tactical nous behind him about what to do better on grass … he’s won three out of four majors. He’s got a tough opening round, then (if the seedings hold) he’s got Murray (in the quarters); he’s played Murray before in a tough match here on Centre. He’s in better form than Murray. I just think he’s got to be the floater.”