Too high or too low? Part IV of our rankings analysis

In early March, we ran a story asking the question – which players are not ranked where they should be?

Basing our investigation on the rankings released on Monday 29 February, our panel – comprising doubles legend Todd Woodbridge, Australian Tennis Magazine editor Vivienne Christie, tennismash editor Paul Moore and staff writers Matt Trollope and Leigh Rogers – debated the players they felt were ranked too low, and conversely, too high.

Several months have elapsed since we published that story and plenty has transpired on the tennis tours in that time.

> Read Part II (April 2016)
> Read Part III (July 2016)

Let see where those players stand today …

The men we felt were ranked “too low” in February:

Ryan Harrison and Grigor Dimitrov were the notable movers here. Harrison, down from his career-high mark of 43rd in 2012 and languishing for so long in the nether regions of the rankings, caught fire on North American hardcourts, qualifying for Washington, Toronto and the US Open and going fairly deep in each. He has few points to defend between now and the end of the season. Dimitrov, who initially went the opposite way to what our panel predicted, recovered in style by producing great results in Toronto, Cincinnati and New York – he now verges on the top 20. While Jerzy Janowicz continues to slide backward in his return from injury, Ernests Gulbis and Pierre-Hugues Herbert joined him after what had before that been promising progression. Herbert has gone just 3-6 since Madrid while the injured Gulbis has not played since Toronto.

The women we felt were ranked “too low” in February:

While Russians Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova and Elena Vesnina continue to creep higher, the most impressive mover of late out of this group has been Japan’s Naomi Osaka. The teenager thrilled home fans with a run to her first WTA final at the Toray Pan Pacific Open in Tokyo, not long after reaching the third round at Flushing Meadows. Bethanie Mattek-Sands’ singles slump is perplexing, given her confidence must be sky-high thanks to her continued success in doubles. Urszula Radwanska, meanwhile, has not won a match in four tournaments since July.

The men we felt were ranked “too high” in February:

All players in this group except Pablo Cuevas have gone the way our panel thought they would. Since we last checked in, perhaps the most notable falls have been experienced by John Isner and Thomaz Bellucci. Bellucci thrilled home fans with a run to the Rio Olympics singles quarterfinals, but this event carried no ranking points – outside of Rio the Brazilian has appeared a few times on the Challenger circuit and experienced limited ATP success. Isner skipped the Olympics to focus on the US Open, a strategy which backfired somewhat – the American saw his win streak in Atlanta snapped by Nick Kyrgios and he bombed early in his four other events, including a third-round loss in New York.

The women we felt were ranked “too high” in February:

Angelique Kerber continues to surprise – even she said following her shock win at the Australian Open that it felt “crazy” to be ranked No.2. Now, she’s the world No.1 after capping a stunning season with victory at Flushing Meadows. While that one didn’t go the way we thought it would, the panel was certainly on the money when it came to Lucie Safarova and Jelena Jankovic. Safarova has failed to replicate the highs of 2015 in an injury and illness plagued year, while Jankovic, a former world No.1, has also struggled throughout 2016 – she has lost more matches than she has won.