The GIG: Analysing the women’s final

Published by Stephanie Kovalchik

Angelique Kerber came back from just a 20% win probability against Pliskova. Photo: Getty Images
As the win probability data shows, Angelique Kerber enjoyed a bumpy road to the US Open title.

Angelique Kerber is the US Open champion. But according to data analysis, she very nearly wasn’t. Midway through the deciding set, Kerber had just a 20% chance of winning the match. How did she turn it around? Stephanie Kovalchik from Tennis Australia’s Game Insight Group (GIG) crunched the numbers on a truly epic US Open final.

This is an abridged version of an article that first appeared on on-the-t.com. To read more click here.

Predictions for the match gave Angelique Kerber with a 59% chance of a victory over Karolina Pliskova, a bit better than a toss of a coin. With such a narrow edge, one or two critical points could dramatically shift the odds in any of the opponents’ favor.

Kerber was the first to make a move, getting two break chances in Pliskova’s opening service game and converting the last. Steely as ever, Plsikova hunkered in and created a break opportunity in the following game. But the World No.11 missed her opportunity. It was a pattern Pliskova would repeat five of seven times in the match and would ultimately cost her the match.

Pliskova had two more missed break opportunities in the fourth game. With each of those missed chances, Kerber took more and more control over the odds throughout the first set. Going into the ninth game with Pliskova serving, Kerber’s win probability was at 77%. When Kerber swiftly forced a break point and secured the set, her chances rose to 82%.

At that point, Kerber was on course to steamroll to her first U.S. Open title.

Kerber v Pliskova win probability.

But Pliskova was going to make her work for the win. The signs of a possible upset came in the third game when Pliskova created the first break point of the second set. She missed that opportunity but didn’t lose belief. With both players on serve, Pliskova got another break chance in seventh and finally managed to take the game. That was a crucial turning point that dropped Kerber’s win chances back to their pre-match levels.

At a set each, Kerber entered the third set with just a 56% win probability over Pliskova. It was truly any player’s match to win at that point.

Pliskova took the upperhand in the third game, creating two break chances, eventually taking the first break of the set. The probabilities reacted strongly to Pliskova’s strong move toward the win. After Pliskova held her next service game, Kerber’s chances had nosedived to 20%.

It would take a mental feat for Kerber to comeback from such a disadvantageous position with only a few games to go. But as she had against Serena Williams at the Australian Open earlier this year, Kerber managed to maintain her focus and edge. She made her move back in the sixth game, taking the break with one break point chance. Back on serve, the first player to get the break would be the bet to win. After heated games in the seventh and eighth it was Kerber who took the match in her hands in the tenth. Perhaps helped by a tight Pliskova, Kerber got to a break point chance at love in the decisive game. With each point, her odds increased by 10 percentage points: to 72% to 15-0, 82% at 30-0, and 92% at 40-0. It was a probabilistic certainty at that point that Kerber would be the new U.S. Open women’s champion.

This is an abridged version of an article that first appeared on on-the-t.com. To read more click here.

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