The GIG: Tracking Dimitrov & Ferrer’s win probabilities

Published by Stephanie Kovalchik

Grigor Dimitrov battled past Jeremy Chardy. Photo: Getty Images
How do you predict the winner of a match? By analysis their performance in certain situations.

Tennis is an unpredictable sport. Matches ebb and flow, and it’s never over until the last point is played. But that doesn’t stop us from looking at probable outcomes. Stephanie Kovalchik from Tennis Australia’s Game Insight Group (GIG) has analysed a number of Day 4 matches from the US Open, determining where the momentum ebbed and flowed due to a player’s ELO Rating.

To read more analysis on other matches from Day 4 at the US Open, visit on-the-t.com.

Dimitrov battles past Chardy (4-6 6-4 3-6 6-4 6-2)

One of the most up-and-down men’s matches of the day was Grigor Dimitrov’s five set battle with Jeremy Chardy. Dimitrov went into the match the strong favorite with a win chance of 73%, but that edge seemed in question when Chardy took the first set.

Analysis of Dimitrov's win over Chardy

Dimitrov fought back in the second to regain his advantage. Then a massive lapse in the seventh game of the third set, when Dimitrov became the first player of the set to lose his serve, turned the tables once again. The outcome was a coin toss at that point, until Dimitrov won 2 breaks over 5 games and gradually brought his win chances back into the majority.

By the fifth, it might have seemed any man’s game, but Dimitrov’s overall expectations and early break in the first break helped him to cruise to the finish line.

Ferrer outlasts Fognini (6-0 4-6 5-7 6-1 6-4)

When fans saw that Fabio Fognini and David Ferrer were going to play in the second round, they had to expect an epic was in store. And neither player disappointed. At No. 13 in the world, David Ferrer had the odds strongly on his side at the start of the match with a forecast of 70% of winning.

When the last match of the day got underway, it looked like we wouldn’t get much of a show as Ferrer took the first set at love. But, in typical Fognini fashion, being down seemed to set the Fog on fire. Fognini battled a 17% win chance going into the second to close out the second and third set with a one break lead over Ferrer. By the fourth, Ferrer’s chances were at a low of 40%.

Analysis of Ferrer's win over Fognini

But he turned things around in the second game with an early break of Fognini’s serve that Fognini never managed to regain.

By the fifth set, Ferrer had regained the edge but his chances were not as certain as at the start of the match. Things got even more concerning for his chances when the players exchanged breaks in the first two games. The next major turning point was Ferrer saving a break point in the fifth game then converting a break in 2 in the eighth. At that point, the probabilities were heavily on Ferrer’s side. Still, it took saving a break point and one missed match point opportunity to take the match in the tenth, which Ferrer eventually did.

To read the full version of this article, visit on-the-t.com.

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