Serena v Kerber: What they need to do to win

The women’s Wimbledon final sees a rematch of this year’s Australian Open showpiece. Can Kerber conjure up another massive upset, or will Serena have the measure of her? We preview a mouthwatering clash.

Serena Williams [1] v Angelique Kerber [4]
H2H: 5-2
Last match: Kerber won 6-4 3-6 6-4 (Australian Open 2016)
Last match on grass: First meeting
Serena Wimbledon best: Winner 2002, 2003, 2009, 2010, 2012, 2015
Kerber Wimbledon best: Semifinal 2012

Serena’s road to the final:
1R: d. Amra Sadikovic 6-2 6-4
2R: d. Christina McHale 6-7(9) 6-2 6-4
3R: d. Annika Beck 6-3 6-0
4R: d. [13] Svetlana Kuznetsova 7-5 6-0
QF: d. [23] Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova 6-4 6-4
SF: d. Elena Vesnina 6-2 6-0

Kerber’s road to the final:
1R: d. Laura Robson 6-2 6-2
2R: d. Vavara Lepchenko 6-1 6-4
3R: d. Carina Witthoeft 7-6(11) 6-1
4R: d. Misaki Doi 6-3 6-1
QF: d. [5] Simona Halep 7-5 7-6(2)
SF: d. [8] Venus Williams 6-4 6-4

What Serena needs to do to win: Play well. The reality for the World No.1 is that if she plays well against Kerber, she should win the match. That, however, is easier said than done in a final. If the German comes out swinging she has the game to cause the World No.1 all sorts of problems (as we saw at the Australian Open). What’s more, Kerber is a confidence player. If Serena allows her to build momentum, it could free up her groundstrokes and make life very had for the six-time champ. But when all is said and done, Serena does have the firepower to win this match. If she can connect cleanly and stifle the German when she makes a push, she is the overwhelming favourite.

What Kerber needs to do to win: Play like she did at the Australian Open. In that final, Kerber played ‘free’. She pummelled her groundstrokes, and mixed things up with some quite audacious shots (anyone remember those drop shots in the third set). She somehow needs to find that groove again. If she can, it will build her confidence and momentum, and could well give her the edge on the day. Anything less and Serena will win.

Prediction: Not meaning to sit on the fence but… If it finishes in two sets Serena will win it, if it goes to three Kerber has the edge.