SmashTalk: Unpicking Wimbledon week one

Djokovic is out, Serena has been up and down, and the weather has been awful. Yes, it’s been a busy first week at Wimbledon, providing plenty of fodder for our editorial panel to work with. Have your say on this SmashTalk on Twitter and Facebook.

Who benefits the most from Djokovic going out early?
Viv Christie: Without a doubt, Milos Raonic – and he’s in just the right form to capitalise. The No.6 seed is the only man in his quarter to progress without the loss of a set and if he wins against David Goffin (admittedly dangerous), he faces a far more manageable Sam Querrey or Nicolas Mahut in the quarterfinals. The almighty Roger Federer, who was also projected to meet Djokovic in the semifinals, might have also added Querrey to his Christmas card list after the American ousted his biggest foe.

Matt Trollope: Absolutely everyone. But of all of them? Milos Raonic. The in-form Canadian, instead of having to go through Djokovic to reach the semifinals, he faces the winner of Querrey v Mahut, provided he gets past Goffin in round four. I’d tip Raonic against any of those guys – this has now become his quarter to lose. Federer fans everywhere are rejoicing, seeing this development as the Swiss star’s reinvigorated path to the title. But Federer’s form is hard to gauge, given his lack of matches in recent months and his absolute cake-walk of a draw so far. If they met in the semis, I’d back Raonic over Federer.

Paul Moore: Roger Federer. Sure, the draw has opened up for Andy Murray (in particular) and Milos Raonic (to a lesser extent), but Federer is without a doubt the main beneficiary. Novak was the only player in the draw that Roger would not be the favourite against. What’s more, it’s increasingly apparent that the World No.1 has a psychological edge over the seven-time champ when it comes to five-set matches. So yes, the ball is very much in Roger’s court now when it comes to Wimbledon 2016.

Leigh Rogers: Andy Murray is Djokovic’s biggest rival, so it obviously benefits him – yet at the same time could be a burden as it only deepens expectations and creates even more pressure for the Brit. I actually think Canadian Milos Raonic benefits most. The big-serving Canadian is yet to lose a set so far in the tournament and is now the highest-ranked player left in the top quarter. If he can continue to build confidence, a first Grand Slam title could be within reach.

Who has impressed you the most in Week One?
VC: Can I make this a collective? Next Gen men are making some noise at The Championships. With his latest win, Nick Kyrgios made it to the final 16 in every Wimbledon he’s contested; Bernard Tomic is progressing almost by stealth; Jiri Vesely is at last matching potential with results and the very talented Lucas Pouille smacked 73 winners as he outclassed everyone’s favourite, Juan Martin del Potro, to make a fourth round major breakthrough.

MT: Of the men, Juan Martin del Potro was inspiring. His win over Stan in the second round was stunning given his complete lack of grasscourt and Grand Slam play in the last few years and the fact it came against a highly credentialled opponent. That result came from nowhere and was a reminder of just how good the Argentine is. Of the women, Dominika Cibulkova has been marvellous – in succession she has straight-setted three dangerous opponents in Lucic, Gavrilova and Bouchard. On an eight-match winning streak, she faces Radwanska next, whom she beat en route to last week’s Eastbourne title.

PM: On the men’s side of things Andy Murray is looking very solid, although is yet to be tested (that will change when he squares off with Kyrgios later today). Also, keep an eye on Tomas Berdych in Week Two. The 2010 finalist loves the SW19 grass and has cruised relatively comfortably through the first three rounds, all of which were potential banana skins. Dominika Cibulkova is on fire at the moment. The Eastbourne champ is riding a wave of confidence at the moment, and has destroyed three talented players (Lucic-Baroni, Gavrilova and Bouchard). I also like Kuznetsova this year. She’s a tough, gritty player and when she’s on she can take anyone out

LR: Dominika Cibulkova. This time last year Cibulkova was unseeded and crashed out with a first round loss as she made a slow recovery from Achilles surgery – she’s flying now though. The powerful Slovak has defeated a former semifinalist in Mirjana Lucic-Baroni and former finalist in Eugenie Bouchard to reach the fourth round. The No.19 seed is yet to drop a set and her confidence is high after her Eastbourne victory last week. She has a good record against next opponent Agnieszka Radwanska and with an open draw in that quarter, a semifinal appearance looks highly possible.

Who’s going to win?
VC: Men: Well this has suddenly become a bit difficult hasn’t it? No Novak Djokovic for an easy answer. The obvious choice now is 2013 champ Andy Murray – but I wonder if his early exit detracts from the pressure for the home favourite, or actually adds to it. It’s a big call (especially with Roger Federer still in the draw) but I sense we’ll see two brand new finalists in 2016. Milos Raonic v Nick Kyrgios, with Raonic to take the title.

Women: My heart says Venus Williams, my head says Serena. And there’s a niggle somewhere that suggests don’t dismiss Angelique Kerber. The 2012 semifinalist is yet to lose a set; and is one of the few players who hasn’t been dramatically been affected by rain delays. The Australian Open champion has put the shock of her first round French Open loss firmly behind her, and is starting to find her Grand Slam rhythm.

MT: I have praised Raonic in abundance, but I think Andy Murray, when fully fit, firing and focused, is the player to beat this year. Only Djokovic has stood in his way in 2016, and now that the Serb’s gone, Murray rightly holds the position of favourite. If he was to come up against Raonic in the final, the Canadian could definitely cause him headaches – as he did in the Australian Open semifinals this year – but memories of blowing a set and a break lead to the Brit in the recent Queen’s final will linger. The women’s winner is naturally harder to pick, and although she’s not looked convincing, I’m going with world No.1 and defending champ Serena Williams until proven otherwise. A potential quarterfinal with the firing Coco Vandeweghe is a concern, but I’d back Serena in the big-arena atmosphere against a fellow American.

PM: For the men, the head says Andy Murray, the heart says Roger Federer. On the women’s side I’m going to say Dominika Cibulkova. Why not? She’s playing the best tennis of anyone left in the draw, she’s looking supremely confident, and everyone else said Serena so I figured I might as well choose someone different.

LR: I’m tipping Milos Raonic to win his first Grand Slam title. With Djokovic’s loss and Nadal’s injury absence, now is the perfect time for men’s tennis to welcome a new champion. The women’s draw will see a familiar face hold aloft the Venus Rosewater Dish – Serena Williams. The world No.1 appears to be playing herself into better form as the tournament progress, an ominous sign for the rest of the field.