#SmashTalk: Is Roger on a run to No.1?

With the dust settling on Indian Wells, and the heat beginning to rise in Miami, it seems only right that this week’s #SmashTalk takes a frenzied approach in a desperate bid to make sense of tennis’ many stories.

Our panel of Vivienne Christie (Australian Tennis Magazine editor), Paul Moore (Head Content Producer at Tennis Australia) and Leigh Rogers (writer), give their tuppence worth on this week’s tennis stories.

Who is the most impressive and most disappointing player in the WTA Top 10 right now?
Viv Christie: I was impressed by Svetlana Kuznetsova’s return to the Indian Wells final for the first time in 2008, which boosted her back to No.7. There’ll be pressure as she defends her Miami 2016 finals run but Kuznetsova seems up for the challenge, having backed up the late-season surge she made late in 2016. Sadly, though, you could argue that the competition is lacking. Consistency is alarming lacking in the WTA’s upper echelon in 2017 – most disappointing (if I must choose one) is Angelique Kerber. You simply expect more from a world No.1 than the lone semifinal run (Dubai) that she’s amassed in six 2017 events.

Paul Moore: I’ll start with the positive: Elina Svitolina. Watching the 22 year old Ukranian wallop her way into the Top 10 has gives you hope for the future of women’s tennis. As for most disappointing? Angelique Kerber. I am a strong Angie advocate, but her form this year has been disappointing (to say the least), and she is not currently deserving to wear the title ‘best tennis player in the world’.

Leigh Rogers: The fact Serena Williams is ranked No.2 from only seven tournaments in the past 12 months is impressive – but also alarmingly highlights the lack of consistency from her top 10 counterparts. Angelique Kerber might lead the pack – but she’s been the most disappointing. She’s now played 10 tournaments since first becoming No.1 and is yet to win a title. No other world No.1 in history has gone without a title in her first 10 events after debuting in the top spot.

Has Roger Federer got a realistic shot at reaching world No.1 this year?
VC: By my very rustic calculations – yes! Federer is only a handful of points from top five now and with two big titles already this season, why shouldn’t he target top spot? A lot will come down to how everyone holds up physically. Not just the Swiss himself but also Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic, who will each lose big points with injury–enforced absences from Miami. If that’s a trend that continues, Federer can keep adding points while the others will see all the points they amassed in deep runs of 2016 dwindle … Apart from a lower–level semifinal here and there, Roger has only Wimbledon semifinals to defend. But just to reiterate: he has to hold up physically.

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PM: The heart says absolutely, the head says no. Of course, if everything goes his way then Roger could find his way back to the top of the tree. But ‘everything’ would mean that his body doesn’t buckle under the strain of playing the number of tournaments needed to catch and pass Novak and Andy. And remember: other players have a say in this too. In particular Andy Murray, who is yet to get going this season.

LR: Are we getting caught up in the fairytale return to even be considering this? Maybe a little – but he’s definitely a chance. Sure Federer plans to play an abbreviated schedule, but in three tournaments he has already built a phenomenal 1,410 points lead over his nearest rival in the ATP Race to London. If he can stay fit for the entire season, the added benefit of playing pressure-free with no points to defend is a luxury his fellow top 10 players won’t be afforded.

Which one player – man or woman – impressed you the most at Indian Wells?
VC: Nick Kyrgios. Of course there was a massive letdown after he withdrew from the quarterfinals against Roger Federer with illness but you can’t overlook Kyrgios’ easy win over Alexander Zverev or more impressively, his second win over Novak Djokovic in as many events. This is the No.2’s best surface and an event he’s won FIVE times. And how many players can say they’ve never lost a set to the 12-time Grand Slam champion?

PM: It’s got to be Roger, right? Nope. Props from my end go to Yoshithito Nishioka – or the other Nishi from Japan. A Lucky Loser entrant to the Indian Wells draw, he had to beat Elias Ymer twice in two days (lost once in qualifying then beat him in the first round), then downed Ivo Karlovic (who is more than a foot taller than he is), Tomas Berdych, and served for the match against Stan Wawrinka. All in all that makes for a bloody good week for the new world No.58

LR: Elena Vesnina. I’ve always been a fan, but still didn’t give her a chance of winning the title. She beat quality players in every round and was a deserving champion. It’s a great story too – from a round one qualifying loss to champion in a year, it was special to watch.