#SmashTalk: can Murray remain No.1?

A mere fortnight after Andy Murray ascended to world No.1, he came within one match of losing the mantle.

Thankfully for him, Murray was able to beat Novak Djokovic – the player who could have usurped him – in the deciding match of the ATP Finals to end the season as the top-ranked player.

How long will he remain at No.1? That’s the question our tennismash staffers – Viv Christie, Paul Moore, Matt Trollope and Leigh Rogers – discussed in this week’s #SmashTalk. The panel also dissected Kei Nishikori’s woes in London and the upcoming Davis Cup final in Zagreb.

What do you think about all this? Have your say on Facebook and Twitter using #SmashTalk.

Will Andy Murray be No.1 in a year’s time?

VC: The toughest challenge, many great champions have said, is not the rise to become world No.1 but the battle to remain there. A slump would be understandable and even forgivable for Andy Murray, given his epic wait to claim that top spot. And yet, his ability to withstand huge mental pressures is one of Murray’s most overlooked qualities as a champion. From the expectation he overcame to become Wimbledon champion in 2013 to his second Olympic gold medal in 2016, the Scot has achieved the most extraordinary feats in the most difficult circumstances. Novak Djokovic is not only showing some chinks, but also has thousands of points to defend in the first half of 2017. We don’t know for for sure that Murray will hold on for a year, but we do know that he’s waited too long to easily let it go.

PM: No. I think he’ll hold on to it for a good chunk of next year, but unless he goes on a streak at the start of 2017 he’ll never be able to defend the points that he has racked up in the last couple of months. It’s going to be a topsy-turvy season as he has almost no points – Australian Open aside – to defend until the European clay court season, while Novak Djokovic has got a clear run after Roland Garros. So yes, I think Andy has it until Wimbledon, and Novak gets it back at the end of the year.

MT: This is a really tough question. Crystal-balling in sport is a fraught exercise, but nevertheless I’m going to predict that he won’t. The Herculean effort required of Murray to ascend to No.1 – after the French Open, he practically had to win every tournament and match that he played – will be hard to replicate. And think of all the points he’ll have to defend in 2017! I can see Novak Djokovic responding strongly next year, and there’s also the slim chance new world No.3 Milos Raonic could pull it all together at the big events and start winning those tight battles against Murray and Djokovic.

LR: No. Murray earned his No.1 ranking with a phenomenal end-of-season run and while I think he’ll hold onto the top spot until at least Wimbledon next year, it’s going to be a challenge to maintain it. Murray has a lot of points to defend in the second half of 2017 and I don’t believe Djokovic’s wobbly form will last. Losing top spot might be just the motivation check the Serb needs – and as Murray knows stopping an inspired Djokovic is a near-impossible task.

After losing three of his four matches in London – including a 61 61 loss to Djokovic in the semis – it’s time to ask: what’s going on with Kei Nishikori?

VC: I’m starting to wonder if Nishikori’s natural reserve is one of his biggest obstacles to top-level success. While he clearly has the talent to create opportunities – as he did with upsets over Andy Murray at the US Open and Stan Wawrinka in London – Kei seems to retreat after every big win. The struggles with injury don’t help (Nishikori retired or withdrew from three events, including Wimbledon, in 2016) but after alluding to being tired after a long season (isn’t everyone?) his bigger challenge seems more mental. Most players would covet the world No.5 ranking Nishikori achieved by season’s end, but most players don’t have his potential either.

PM: I get so frustrated with Kei Nishikori. That he’s incredibly talented and that he’s a Japanese superstar is beyond doubt. But I find myself constantly questioning his attitude. He’s had so many niggling injuries and we’ve seen so many abject performances from him in high-pressure matches. Kei says that he wants to be one of the best, but when you compare him to Rafa Nadal who has played in pain for years, or Andy Murray who has had to fight harder than anyone else to get to where he is, there is no comparison. I really wonder whether he has the ‘heart’ for the battle that it takes to get to the absolute top.

MT: I think it’s a mental issue. The belief that he’s the very best just isn’t there. Too often now we’ve seen Nishikori surrender limply to the top names in the biggest matches. Inexplicable errors. A lack of intensity. Otherwise, there’s a serious lack of depth in the men’s game if the second-ranked Djokovic is that much better than the fifth-ranked Nishikori. “I wasn’t ready to play against Novak I think physically,” he said after the loss. A player as fit as Nishikori, playing only best-of-three sets in London with a day off between every round-robin match, claiming he wasn’t physically prepared? I’m sorry, but I’m just not buying that.

LR: To be fair to Nishikori, he impressively beat Wawrinka in his opening match in London and then pushed Murray in a titanic three-set battle which appeared to leave him both physically and mentally exhausted. There is no denying his semifinal loss was disappointing, however Djokovic went into that match with a nine-match winning streak over Nishikori so it’s not exactly shocking. Perhaps the biggest lesson Nishikori should take from the ATP World Tour Finals is that he needs to work on his stamina to challenge for major titles.

Who wins this weekend’s Davis Cup final between Croatia and Argentina, and why?

VC: The heart screams Argentina, to complete the final chapter in Juan Martin del Potro’s fairytale comeback. There’s also a feel-good factor in the lack of an Argentine Davis Cup title so far. My head, though, says Croatia given the career-best momentum that Marin Cilic brings in to the final, as well as the sturdy back-up from the experienced Ivo Karlovic. It’s hard to pick against the home team with a raucous Zagreb crowd to cheer them on.

PM: Argentina. If I’m being completely honest the only reason I want them to win is because I want Juan Martin del Potro to win. It’s been a near-fairytale return from injury for the Tower of Tandil, and leading them to victory in the Davis Cup would cap it all off.

MT: Seeing comeback star Juan Martin del Potro lead the Argentines to their first Davis Cup trophy would be a truly epic story. But I think in front of 15,000 passionate home fans and with the depth they have in their squad, the Croatians are going to claim victory.

LR: A Juan Martin del Potro-led Argentina victory would be a fairytale result in the former world No.4’s comeback season from his career-threatening wrist injuries – but as we know, tennis doesn’t follow a Hollywood script. The Croatian team has too much depth in their singles line-up, plus an upper hand in their options for doubles combinations, so it is hard to see them being beaten.