Murray v Djokovic: The No.1 scenarios

Published by Paul Moore

Murray and Djokovic are fighting for world No.1 in London. Photo: Getty Images
It’s crunch time in the battle for No.1. But what do Murray and Djokovic have to do to clinch the top spot in London?

It is the narrative that has dominated tennis news for the last couple of months: who will end the year as ATP world No.1? After Andy Murray overhauled Novak Djokovic’s enormous lead to take over top spot just two weeks ago, Novak could take it back should results go his way in London.

Going into the ATP World Tour Finals, the pair were separated by just 405 points in the rankings (Murray has 11,585 points to Djokovic’s 11,380). However, Murray will ‘lose’ 275 points on 28 November, when the points he earned from the Davis Cup final drop off. That means that the pair are, in effect, separated by just 130 points.

At the ATP Finals, players earn 200 points for every round robin win, 400 points for a semifinal win, and a win in the final offers an additional 500 points.

With his victory over Goffin earlier today, Djokovic took the maximum 600 points on offer from his round robin matches. Murray will face Wawrinka on Friday, needing to win a single set to guarantee a spot in the semifinals.

This is when it starts to get complicated with the scenarios the race for No.1:

Scenario one: Murray finishes second in the group (he wins a set but loses to Wawrinka), and plays Djokovic in the semifinals. The winner of that match becomes No.1.

Scenario two: Murray beats Wawrinka and avoids Djokovic in the semifinals. If one of them loses in the semifinals, the other becomes No.1.

Scenario three: Murray and Djokovic avoid each other in the semifinals but both lose. If Murray has beaten Wawrinka (and has the maximum 600 points from the round robin stages) Murray stays No.1. If Djokovic has a better round robin record he is No.1.

Scenario four: Djokovic and Murray play each other in the final. The winner becomes No.1.

Clear as mud? Thought so.

If Andy Murray can hold on to the top spot he’ll be the 17th man in history to do so (since computerised rankings began in 1973). If Djokovic can get it back he will claim his third consecutive year-end No.1.

Share this: 
  • Most popular articles

14 August 2017

Sharapova quotes Serena: “I will never lose to that li...

Maria Sharapova has opened up in her memoir Unstoppable, revealing her take on how Serena ... More

7 November 2016

20 Questions: Andy Murray

Double Wimbledon champion, double Olympic champion and now world No.1. But what doesn't An... More

24 November 2016

GIG: Djokovic the fastest tennis player in the world

Novak Djokovic is the fastest tennis player on the planet, according to new data from Tenn... More

9 January 2018

ATP: the biggest strength and weakness of every top 10 playe...

As the first Grand Slam of the season fast approaches, top-10 players are leading the char... More