The GIG: Analysing the men’s final

How did Stan Wawrinka go from having a win probability of just 10% against Novak Djokovic to taking home the US Open title? Stephanie Kovalchik from Tennis Australia’s Game Insight Group (GIG) crunched the win probability numbers following Wawrinka’s famous victory.

This is an abridged version of an article that first appeared on on-the-t.com. To read more click here.

Tracking Wawrinka’s win chances from the first to the final point of the match, we see that the odds were against him throughout the first three sets.

After being shutout in the first set tiebreak, Wawrinka made a move in the fourth game of the second set when he converted his first break opportunity and fought off three break chances in his following service game. Djokovic was struggling to convert break chances but was still generating nearly three break chances to every two Wawrinka was creating. That stat didn’t bode well for Wawrinka when Djokovic got the break back in the seventh game. The decisive moment came in the tenth game when Djokovic had a loose service game with three unforced errors, giving Wawrinka the break and set.

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The first game of the third was characteristic of Djokovic’s flaw throughout the match: He created three break chances but wasn’t able to seize those opportunities. After 12 tough points, Wawrinka managed to hold serve. One of the biggest turning points in the match came in the second game, when Wawrinka, perhaps aided by the confidence of the previous service hold and two backhand winners, broke Djokovic’s serve. With that break, Wawrinka’s increased his odds from 17% at the start of the third set, to 31%.

Wawrinka held that advantage until the fifth game, when his backhand magic seemed to fail him and he made three unforced errors on that side, and one on the forehand side to give Djokovic the break. This dropped his chances of an upset back down to 20%. Both players held serve for the next six games. Needing a break to avoid a tiebreak in the twelfth game, Wawrinka played on a weak backhand game for Djokovic to take the break and set. That would be another milestone in the match, with a two-set lead, Wawrinka went into the fourth set with even odds against the World No. 1.

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The momentum swung even more in favour of the Swiss quickly in the second. In the second game, with Djokovic serving, Wawrinka needed just six points to get to a break point opportunity. That advantage was helped by 2 unforced errors on Djokovic’s forehand. Seeing Djokovic’s struggle on that side, Wawrinka took that opening and forced an error on the forehand to convert his break point chance. With the first break on the board and games away from match point, Wawrinka’s odds were at a match high of 80%.

From that point onwards, Wawrinka was dominant. There were only a few moments when Djokovic threatened to live up to his pre-match forecast. These included three chances to get the break back in the fifth game of the set. But Wawrinka was consistently more clutch and Djokovic couldn’t capitalise on those chances.

To read more from Steph visit on-the-t.com.