#SmashTalk: Thoughts from Flushing Meadows

The US Open has begun, and the tournament is taking shape.

One-hundred-and-twenty-eight competitors have been whittled down to 64 in each the men’s and women’s draw, giving us a chance to assess the form of the big guns and ascertain who could do some major damage in the season’s final Grand Slam event.

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What did we learn about Serena and Djokovic after the first round?

VC: If there’s one thing that 2016 has shown – albeit at different times – is that our record-breaking world No.1s are human after all. Alongside stunning highs, Serena Williams and Novak Djokovic have also experienced surprising lows (at least by their own standards), including early losses for each at the Olympics.  Serena’s straight-sets progression over Ekaterina Makarova, who’s troubled her previously, was thus as reassuring as it was emphatic while Novak was clearly relieved to overcome both injury and a dangerous opponent in Jerzy Janowicz. The biggest takeaway is perhaps not the wins themselves, but how hard these endlessly competitive superstars will work to achieve them.

PM: That they are the players to beat this year. Yes, Novak needed treatment and yes he lost a set, but make no mistake that Djokovic owned a tough opponent in Janowicz. Serena, meanwhile, was a class above the always dangerous Ekaterina Makarova. So yes, now that they are both up and running I fully expect them to accelerate towards the titles this year.

MT: That Serena is fine. That Djokovic is not. Serena, who struggled with a shoulder injury throughout the American summer and Olympics, seemed largely free of that discomfort in a commanding win over the dangerous Ekaterina Makarova – her service stats were exemplary. Djokovic, meanwhile, battling a wrist injury in the lead-up to New York, now seems to have an elbow/right arm complaint to add to the mix. He required an MTO during his scratchy first-round performance against Jerzy Janowicz, and doesn’t look secure.

LR: The stats speak for themselves when it comes to doubts over Serena’s shoulder. The world No.1 served 12 aces and won 90% of points on her first serve against an exceptional hard court player in Ekaterina Makarova. I’m certainly not tipping against Serena after that emphatic performance – she’s still the title favourite in my eyes. As for Djokovic, there are worrying signs. He needed treatment early in his first round match and dropped a set to a player who has only played five matches since January due to injury. The positive sign is Djokovic finished the match strongly. Yet with the dangerous Jiri Vesely waiting in round two, the world No.1 needs to quickly improve if he is to win a third US Open title.

With 39 Americans in the main draw, who will be the US No.1 in 5 years time?

VC: The big-hitting Madison Keys has been my pick as a future No.1 – both of her nation and women’s tennis overall – for some time now. There are several contenders in the men’s game – Steve Johnson has assembled his best season at age 26 and the six match points he saved against Evegeny Donskoy to win their first round are epic. Jack Sock, aged 23 and backed by a huge serve, has similar capabilities but I’m tipping his first-round victim Taylor Fritz to overtake all countrymen before too long. Thundering up the rankings in a breakthrough year, the 18-year-old has both the talent and fortitude to implement tough lessons from that five-set loss.

PM: American tennis is in a healthy place at the moment, which is good for the sport as a whole. In terms of who will be leading the pack in the next five years, that’s hard to say. While Taylor Fritz is the obvious candidate for the men, I like the look (and game) of Frances Tiafoe. On the women’s side it’s hard to look past Madison Keys, but I don’t think she has the game or temperament to dominate the sport in the way that someone like Serena has.

MT: Australians would kill for numbers like this in the main draws of their home slam. But it’s so hard to predict five years into the future – remember when we all had Sloane Stephens pegged for stardom after her semifinal run at Australian Open 2013? The obvious candidate is Madison Keys – injury prone and erratic as she is. On the men’s side, Taylor Fritz seems the steadiest and most professional of the young cohort emerging, and the body type/game style best suited to success at the highest level.

LR: It’s an exciting time for US tennis for sure. Taylor Fritz leads a talented group of rising stars and with the giant inroads he has made this season it suggests he has a big future ahead of him and will soon be the top American. With the likes of Jared Donaldson and Frances Tiafoe following closely behind, they are only going to push Fritz to an even higher level. Madison Keys is the obvious heir as the top American woman. Keys is exceptionally talented and has already broken into the world’s top 10 – is she going to win Grand Slams though? I’m still hesitant to subscribe to that buzz. I want to believe but her frustrating inconsistency makes me doubt it will happen… at least anytime soon.

After another first round defeat, is it time for Ana Ivanovic to retire?

VC: The “R” word is circling for Ana Ivanovic, who suffered her fourth straight first-round loss to the unheralded Denisa Allertova. It was also the second year in which the former No.1 crashed before round two and repeats the same pattern from Wimbledon, where she fell to little-known Ekaterina Alexandrova.  The biggest disappointment, according to Ana herself, is that she’d invested so many hours into preparation – both on court and in the gym. Still, she’s struggled with a wrist injury of late and at least the hard work shows how much tennis still means to Ivanovic. In a world of 30-something stars, there’s still plenty of time for a 28-year-old to rediscover best form. Reset, not retirement, is surely the focus?

PM: It’s safe to say that things haven’t been great for Ana Ivanovic for a while now. But retirement? Why should she?! She’s only 28 years-old, is making good money for herself, and is plying her trade at the top of the game. What’s more, the WTA needs Ana. With Serena and Venus in the twilight of their careers and Maria’s reputation tarnished, Ana still has a reach and appeal that transcends regular tennis fanatics.

MT: Only Ana can determine when the time is right to step away. She’s talented and still only 28. She’s been through form dips before and come out of them – she even bounced back into the top five in 2014. But what’s most troubling is that it seemed two years ago Ivanovic was finally free of her enduring post-Roland Garros 2008 slump and was finally rediscovering the form that took her to No.1. For her to have a second crisis of confidence and plunge in the rankings yet again might be one setback too many. And given that won’t be fun to go through, she may decide she’s had enough.

LR: “I feel like I have potential and game, but it hasn’t really been coming together.” That’s what Ana told the press after her round one loss in New York. (Cue eye roll) Yes, Ana you do have potential – you don’t get to world No.1 and win a Grand Slam without it. Yet in the past 34 Grand Slams she has played, Ana has only advanced past the fourth round three times (yes, three times!). That’s a mind-blowingly disappointing statistic, especially when you consider that ‘potential’. This time last year Ana was a top 10 player, so there’s no reason why she can’t still make a comfortable living from the game for a few more years. But it’s time to stop living in the past, Ana is no longer a slam contender.

Some of the qualifiers are killing it at the US Open. Is there a value in coming through the quallies?

VC: They’re more likely to be first week draw destroyers than second week contenders but qualifiers are always dangerous. In earning their place the hard way, they’ve gained valuable match play and often stunning momentum. Nine male qualifiers advanced to the US Open’s second round – more notably, Steve Darcis (a five-set winner over Jordan Thompson), Mischa Zverev (big brother of Next Gen star Alexander), Ryan Harrison and Jared Donaldson. Among 16 women qualifiers, five are into the second round and five more pushed opponents to three sets (Taylor Townsend threatened Caroline Wozniacki and Elise Mertens pushed Garbine Muguruza). If there’s one in particular to watch, it’s CiCi Bellis:  in 2014, the then 15-year-old upset Dominika Cibulkova to reach the second round. In 2016, this qualifier appears considerably more (ahem) qualified to advance even further.

PM: Look, nobody comes through qualifying and goes on to win a Grand Slam (well, nobody has done that yet). But that doesn’t mean there’s no value in the process. With plenty of the bigger names entering a Slam short on match practice, qualifying gives ‘weaker’ players a chance to acclimatise to conditions and have a shot at claiming a scalp or two.

MT: Absolutely. I would pick qualifying over a wildcard any day. Qualifiers arrive in the main draw having had a week to acclimatise to the conditions and courts, gain valuable match play and build a reserve of confidence thanks to three straight match wins. It’s perfect preparation. They arrive in the main draw on merit, with the belief they belong there. And when they take on a higher-ranked player, they’re often more grooved and can spring an upset. Hence why we’ve seen a collective 14 qualifiers advance to the second round of the men’s and women’s singles events, yet only six wildcards …

LR: Without doubt there is. Winning three matches in qualifying allows players to build important momentum and get used to the conditions. Qualifiers out-performing their rank is something that has been happening in tennis for years and No.12 seed David Goffin’s loss to the No.122-ranked qualifier Jared Donaldson today is a perfect example. Yet these shocks are what make the sport so exciting for fans, you just never know what to expect.