Wimbledon preview: breaking down the men’s draw

As a Grand Slam tournament looms, few things are more fun than scouring the draw sheet to see how the tournament could potentially unfold.

What might the blockbuster matches be when the seeds meet? Which slightly-less-heralded players represent dangers to the stars? Which opening-round matches have got everyone talking?

We break down the men’s singles draw and look at what might happen over the next fortnight at the All England Club.

Projected quarterfinals

Top seed Novak Djokovic and Milos Raonic, seeded No.6, could meet in what would be the pick of the men’s quarterfinals. Nobody, on paper at least, poses a threat to Djokovic until at least the last eight, while Raonic, a recent finalist at Queen’s and a former Wimbledon semifinalist, would be favoured to see off the seeds – Jack Sock, Kevin Anderson and David Goffin – in his section.

Roger Federer (No.3) and Kei Nishikori (No.5) are slated to meet in the second quarterfinal – if either can get there. Federer, despite being short of match play in 2016, has a favourable draw, while Nishikori has historically struggled on grass and could come up against seeds, such as Nottingham finalist Pablo Cuevas and proven Wimbledon performers Marin Cilic and Ivo Karlovic, who could trip him up.

In the third quarter, No.4 seed Stan Wawrinka and eighth seed Dominic Thiem are projected to meet in the last eight, but neither counts grass as their favourite surface. Thiem displayed newfound grasscourt capabilities with a win in Stuttgart and a semifinal finish in Halle, but could face either Tomas Berdych or Alexander Zverev in the last 16. Wawrinka opens against the talented Taylor Fritz, could battle Juan Martin del Potro in the second round while Bernard Tomic floats as a potential fourth-round danger. Not the easiest of paths.

Andy Murray and Richard Gasquet – seeded second and seventh respectively – round out the draw in the bottom quarter. Given their Wimbledon records, they’d be favoured to meet in the quarterfinals, but obstacles loom, as we outline below …

Most stacked quarter

That would be the bottom quarter, led by Murray and Gasquet. It’s full of dangers; other seeds in this quarter are the big-serving John Isner – always a force on the quick lawns, but who opens against talented grasscourter Marcos Baghdatis – and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, who, as a two-time Wimbledon semifinalist, looms as Gasquet’s fourth round opponent. Murray hasn’t fared much better – his projected opponent in the last 16 is the surging Nick Kyrgios, one of the newest members of the top 20 and in his short career a proven performer at the All England Club. But that’s if Kyrgios can get past Feliciano Lopez – a three-time Wimbledon quarterfinalist – in the third round. Kyrgios in fact has a rough draw – he opens against tricky Czech Radek Stepanek and could get Dustin Brown in round two, a player who has a history over performing above his ranking on grass and who last year took down Rafael Nadal on Centre Court.

Dark horses

Nick Kyrgios
According to the bookies, Nick Kyrgios is the fifth favourite to win the whole tournament. And the young Aussie – who’s been promoted to 15th seeding despite his ranking of 18th – has a history over strong showings at the All England Club, most notably his stunning defeat of world No.1 Rafael Nadal en route to the quarterfinals in 2014.

Alexander Zverev
The teenager came of age just recently in Halle, beating Roger Federer in a stunning semifinal performance. With a huge serve and rangy power perfectly suited to grass, as well as, arguably, a favourable draw, the young German could do some damage.

Dominic Thiem
The Austrian, the game’s newest member of the top 10, surprised even himself with his grasscourt form this summer. Always noted as a claycourt threat, Thiem won his first ever grasscourt title in Stuttgart and backed that up with a semifinal run in Halle. He’s the highest-ranked player in his quarter behind No.4 seed Stan Wawrinka, who has historically struggled at Wimbledon.

First round picks

Dominic Thiem (8) v Florian Mayer
A danger match for the eighth seed; Mayer recently won in Halle and is a former Wimbledon quarterfinalist.

Bernard Tomic (19) v Fernando Verdasco
These two always seem to produce epic matches, helped by an attractive contrast in styles. Tomic recently overcame the Spaniard in three sets at Queen’s.

Stan Wawrinka (4) v Taylor Fritz
The game’s present versus its future. Wawrinka will be favoured to see off the 18-year-old, but nowhere is the Swiss star more vulnerable than on grass.

Best of the rest
Gael Monfils (17) v Jeremy Chardy; John Isner (18) v Marcos Baghdatis; Nick Kyrgios (15) v Radek Stepanek